Israel sees Soleimani killing as opportunity to counter Iran’s regional entrenchment

Israeli Military Intelligence believes the killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani represents a significant opportunity to counter Tehran’s growing aggressiveness in the region, The Times of Israel has learned.

In its annual intelligence assessment, which is presented to the country’s decision-makers, the Israel Defense Forces sees Iran as its primary enemy, one that is both increasingly weakened by internal protests in the country and by the recent loss of one of its main leaders, who served as something of a viceroy commanding and counseling allies throughout the Middle East.

But it also believes Iran could be potentially more dangerous as the Islamic regime seeks to maintain control of its country.

The full ramifications of Soleimani’s death earlier this month in an American airstrike in Baghdad remain unclear, but as the long-time commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, who created and controlled Shiite militia proxies throughout the Middle East, his absence is expected to have a positive effect on regional stability, the military assesses.

The IDF does not foresee Iran intentionally initiating a war against the Jewish state in the coming year, but does see a risk of unwitting conflict as Israel intends to continue acting against Tehran in the region, which could prompt Iranian retaliations.

Specifically, the IDF believes Soleimani’s death has the potential to allow Israel to curb or halt Iran’s efforts to entrench itself militarily in Syria and to transfer the technology needed for Hezbollah to produce its own precision-guided missiles within Lebanon.

— Judah Ari Gross