Poll predicts all-time-low Arab turnout in upcoming vote, potentially helping Netanyahu

An “in-depth” opinion poll published by the Kan public broadcaster predicts the upcoming November 1 election could feature the lowest-ever turnout among Arab Israelis, potentially causing Arab representation to dwindle and giving Opposition Leader Benjamin Netanyahu a parliamentary majority.

The survey — conducted by Yousef Makladeh’s Statnet firm, which specializes in Israel’s Arab minority — predicts that Arab turnout will be 39%, the lowest in the country’s history.

The current lowest turnout, 44.6%, was reached in the last election, in 2021. A year before that, when all four major Arab and Arab-majority parties ran on a joint slate, Arab participation was at its peak — 64.8%, giving the Joint List 15 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

But the independent run by the Islamist Ra’am party has caused Arab representation to go down to 10 seats in the current Knesset (6 for the Joint List, 4 for Ra’am), and the poll predicts this will go down to 9 — 5 for the Joint List, 4 for Ra’am — if the makeup of parties doesn’t change. The survey also shows Arab voters handing 1.5 Knesset seats to Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party.

If the Palestinian nationalist Balad party further splits from the Joint List, as it is threatening to do, Arab representation will suffer a further blow, even risking the possibility that all three parties will fail to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold, according to the poll.

In such a scenario, Balad will fail to enter the Knesset, and both the Joint List and Ra’am will be perilously close to oblivion at 4 seats each.