Tiptoeing between Russia and Iran: 9 things to know for September 21

1. Talking tough, but not too tough: Israel appears to be trying to thread the very fine line of sounding (and acting tough) on Iran and Hezbollah in Syria, while also trying to show the right amount of groveling to Russia without actually admitting it did anything wrong in the downed spy plane incident.

• A top-level Air Force delegation flew to Moscow on Thursday to explain Israel’s version of events, namely that Israel’s jet wasn’t even near Syria when the S-200 operator fired the air defense missile that downed the Ilyushin IL-20 recon plane.
• According to reports carried by the Hebrew press Friday, and originating with Hezbollah-linked al-Meyadeen, Moscow rejected the report, since it also placed blame on the Russians. Israel has firmly denied this claim.
• However, even though Russian president Vladimir Putin dialed back the criticism back on Tuesday, on Thursday the Russian Foreign Ministry was back demanding more answers and blaming Israel, indicating either the Kremlin’s dissatisfaction, or a lack of coordination with Moscow.
• “Russia has been sending mixed messages since the incident and, as usual, there is a gap between the Russian statements and actions,” writes Amos Harel in Haaretz, claiming that Russia is trying to turn the loss of the plane into a net gain as part of a wider strategy.
• One of those actions was the closing of airspace over Syria’s coasts for a week, supposedly for a drill, but nobody is buying it isn’t a punitive measure over the downing of the plane.
• The Walla news site reports that Kulanu MK Tali Pluskov met with Putin Thursday, who told her that “many mistakes were made in the incident.”

2. Iran sees a window: It’s not only Russia that may be trying to take advantage of the incident.

• According to Yedioth Ahronoth, Israeli defense officials fear Iran is planning on using the immediate period, when Israel is more likely to hesitate before taking air action, to transfer advanced weapons.
• Yet the paper reports that Jerusalem is insistent it won’t be cowed by the incident and ensuing storm. “We don’t have the option of not acting against a threat like this,” the paper quotes a gaggle of senior Israeli officials saying.

3. Russian anti-Semitism at play? Zvi Magen, a researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, tells Israel Hayom that Russia needs Israel as much Israel needs Russia, accusing Moscow of harboring anti-Semitic motives in blaming Israel, but predicting nothing much will come of the hubbub in terms of restrictions on Israeli planes.

• “There are those in Russia, especially in the defense ministry, who are very critical of Israel’s freedom in Syria. The string of statements from the defense ministry seem like a staged attack that even contained a hint of anti-Semitism,” he’s quoted saying.
• “The Russians know Israel can make big problems for them in Syria and the last thing they want is a fight with us,” he adds.

4. Eyes on Iraq: Brig. Gen. Uri Oron, the head of the Air Force’s intelligence unit, tells Haaretz that Russia’s presence in Syria has complicated matters for Israel’s military, forcing it to be “very precise.”

• In the interview, which took place before the whole bust-up with Russia, he also says some of the focus on preventing Iran from challenging Israel has shifted to Iraq: “A year ago we weren’t watching Iraq at all.”

5. UNGA Bunga: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be speaking at the UN General Assembly next week, just a few minutes after Mahmoud Abbas, setting up a possible, but improbable meet-cute between the two leaders who have not had a substantive meeting in years.

• Who Netanyahu will be meeting with is US President Donald Trump, the White House confirmed Thursday.
• Israel’s Kan broadcaster reports that Netanyahu may also meet with Polish President Andrej Duda in a bid to resolve any lingering unpleasantness over that whole Polish death camp law thing.

Exclusive: Israel & Poland are "in advance talks" of trying to arrange a meeting betweem Polish President Duda & Israel PM Netanyahu during #UNGA; Such a meeting would be the 1st high ranking meeting of PM Netanyahu with a Polish official since the Holocaust law crises began pic.twitter.com/mXbRFMWzvq

— Amichai Stein (@AmichaiStein1) September 21, 2018

6. Fear of an Abbas speech: A Hadashot news report details a warning from IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot that there is a 60 to 80 percent chance the West Bank will erupt in violence as a response to Abbas being pushed into a corner by the US.

• The warning is not the first of its type and its likely a product of the fact that nobody blames leaders when they predict catastrophe and it doesn’t materialize, but if you dare to say everything is okay and chaos does break out, that’s your head on a platter.
• According to Yedioth, which also runs a report on the briefing, Eisenkot was fairly direct in blaming any possible outbreak of violence on the US decision to cut aid and ties with the Palestinians.
• According to the reports, Eisenkot told ministers that much will depend on how “combative” Abbas’s speech is at the UN. The idea conjures up the ridiculous image of some Palestinian, Molotov cocktail in hand, intently watching the UN General Assembly for instructions on whether to light and throw it.
• “Despite growing fears in Israel over Abbas’s speech … the estimation is that he will not throw it all in,” Yedioth reports.

7. Money trouble: ToI’s report that the killer of Ari Fuld has not yet been paid but that his family is eligible for PA “terror stipends” sparked wide US condemnation on Thursday.

• US ambassador David Friedman tweeted about the killer being eligible for the money, calling it unconscionable.

The Palestinian Prisoner Affairs Commission has confirmed that the family of the terrorist who murdered Ari Fuld is “eligible to receive a monthly salary” as compensation for his incarceration. This practice is unconscionable and must stop if there is to be any hope for peace.

— Ambassador Mike Huckabee (@USAmbIsrael) September 20, 2018

• Asked about it, the State Department spokesperson Heather Nauert used the possible payment as a way of defending US cuts of aid to Palestinians, including East Jerusalem hospitals.
• The reasoning led to a heated back and forth between the AP’s Matt Lee and Nauert over whether the US could assume that the money that goes to terrorists could cover the shortfall instead.

• Israeli Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon tells Israel Hayom that “every shekel paid to the family will be taken from [the Palestinian Authority]” and that he’s looking for other ways to freeze out the family economically.

8. Lost in translation: ToI’s Jessica Steinberg reports on an Israeli publisher that has pulled an unauthorized Hebrew translation of a collection of writings from Arab writers from around the world off the shelves, after the writers found out and were furious.

• The story notes that the publisher, Resling, said recently that getting permission from publishers in Arab countries that have no ties with Israel is sometimes impossible, which raises the possibility that this is not the first time they have pulled such a stunt.
• While the publisher said it was trying to give the women a voice, Arab Israeli author Khulud Khamis who exposed the translation and lack of authorization fumes that “these writers are not screaming in their kitchens or in the fields, and they are definitely not waiting for the white male savior to ‘save’ them.”

9. The Browns Jewish savior: Lastly, a hearty mazal tov to Jewish NFL kicker Greg Joseph, who helped the Cleveland Browns to their first victory in 635 days.

• While quarterback Baker Mayfield may have been the hero who got free beer for all the browns fans lucky enough to not be watching at 5 a.m. from Israel (as this writer was), Joseph managed to make two kicks and two extra points on the way to a 21-17 win over the New York Jets.
• The Browns previous two games, which ended in a tie and a loss, could have been won had Joseph’s predecessor been able to split the uprights.
• Like most Jewish day school kids, the Johannesburg native played soccer and not football until he switched to a non-Jewish school his senior year of high school and picked up the gig.

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