Analysis

The Egyptian blame game

It’s doubtful the Muslim Brotherhood was behind Tuesday’s bombing near Cairo, but that won’t stop the government from trying to pin it on the Islamists

Avi Issacharoff

Avi Issacharoff, The Times of Israel's Middle East analyst, fills the same role for Walla, the leading portal in Israel. He is also a guest commentator on many different radio shows and current affairs programs on television. Until 2012, he was a reporter and commentator on Arab affairs for the Haaretz newspaper. He also lectures on modern Palestinian history at Tel Aviv University, and is currently writing a script for an action-drama series for the Israeli satellite Television "YES." Born in Jerusalem, he graduated cum laude from Ben Gurion University with a B.A. in Middle Eastern studies and then earned his M.A. from Tel Aviv University on the same subject, also cum laude. A fluent Arabic speaker, Avi was the Middle East Affairs correspondent for Israeli Public Radio covering the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the war in Iraq and the Arab countries between the years 2003-2006. Avi directed and edited short documentary films on Israeli television programs dealing with the Middle East. In 2002 he won the "best reporter" award for the "Israel Radio” for his coverage of the second intifada. In 2004, together with Amos Harel, he wrote "The Seventh War - How we won and why we lost the war with the Palestinians." A year later the book won an award from the Institute for Strategic Studies for containing the best research on security affairs in Israel. In 2008, Issacharoff and Harel published their second book, entitled "34 Days - The Story of the Second Lebanon War," which won the same prize.

Egyptians gather after a powerful explosion believed to be caused by a car bomb rocked a police headquarters in the Nile Delta city of Mansoura, 110 kilometers (70 miles) north of Cairo on Tuesday, December 24. 2013. (photo credit: AP Photo)
Egyptians gather after a powerful explosion believed to be caused by a car bomb rocked a police headquarters in the Nile Delta city of Mansoura, 110 kilometers (70 miles) north of Cairo on Tuesday, December 24. 2013. (photo credit: AP Photo)

A few hours after a massive explosion at Egyptian security forces headquarters in Daqahliya province, north of Cairo, it is difficult to determine the identity of those behind the terror attack.

The bombing left 12 people dead and over 100 wounded according to state media reports, and was followed by the Muslim Brotherhood being labeled a “terror organization” by Cairo.

However, the Islamist movement itself released a statement condemning the blast.

Egypt, splintered and bloodied after years of unrest, has a number of groups who would want to carry out such an attack, but it is doubtful if the Muslim Brotherhood is among them.

If the movement has a connection to this attack it will have serious implications both in terms of its legal standing and in damaging the way it is seen on the Egyptian street.

Thus it is likely that somebody in Cairo was eager to pin the bombing on the Brotherhood, seeking to exploit the created momentum — public anger against those who attacked security forces — and channel it to erode the status of the group.

The Egyptian government’s declaration that the movement is a terror organization does not itself have dramatic implications on the ground. As it is, for months since the second revolution in Egypt there has been an intense hunt on for Muslim Brotherhood members and leadership, and thousands have been arrested by Egyptian security forces.

It may be that now it will be easier for the Egyptian courts to impose heavy penalties on them, but nothing beyond that.

The most important implication of this announcement (which the prime minister himself refused to deal with), is a widening internal Egyptian rift between the Muslim Brotherhood and the new military government.

While in Tunisia it seems that a combination of secular and religious forces is attempting to find a solution to the state’s problems, it looks like in Egypt the war between the camps is worsening, so it is doubtful that the army will succeed in bringing a better future for Egypt.

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