Israel watches as South Africa’s hostile ANC set to lose support but remain in power
As 27 million head to polls, frustrated voters likely to punish African National Congress for corruption, but opposition has scant chance of ousting longtime rulers
Lazar Berman is The Times of Israel's diplomatic reporter
As over 27 million South Africans vote on Wednesday, the ruling African National Congress could well lose the parliamentary majority it has enjoyed for three decades, one that has allowed it to rule the influential country alone.
Unable to consistently supply basic services like water and electricity, and accused of widespread corruption, the ANC is fighting to hang on to over half of the vote. Adding to anger at the ANC, one-third of adults are out of work, and crime rates are sky-high.
If the iconic liberation party of Nelson Mandela falls below 50% for the first time since it took power in South Africa’s first democratic elections in 1994, the party will have to cobble together a coalition government.
Israel is taking particular note of the elections. South Africa has emerged as one of the most bitter critics of the Jewish state on the international stage.
South Africa has long been a vocal supporter of the Palestinian cause, with the ANC party often linking it to its own struggle against apartheid. It strongly condemned Israel’s response to the Hamas onslaught of October 7, brought allegations of genocide against the Jewish state at the International Court of Justice and recalled all its diplomats from the country.
South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor vowed that citizens who fight in the Israel Defense Forces will be arrested upon returning to the country.
Polling shows the ANC garnering up to 45% of the vote, but some say those figures don’t account for the fact that many supporters are poor and hard to reach.
The second largest opposition party is the Democratic Alliance, which currently holds 84 seats in the 400-member National Assembly, and controls the Western Cape provincial government, the only of South Africa’s 9 provinces not in the hands of the ANC.
The party is not hostile to Israel, but its Western Cape stronghold is the province with the country’s highest percentage of Muslim residents, and as such it doesn’t go far in its support for the Jewish state.
The third-largest party is the Economic Freedom Fighters faction, a populist Marxist bloc that supports arming Hamas in its attempts to destroy Israel.
There is also the conservative Zulu-backed Inkatha Freedom Party, which has notably avoided condemning Israel.
The best-case scenario for Israel would be that the ANC drops below 50%, and the Democratic Alliance succeeds in cobbling together a coalition of smaller parties that would include the IFP and Christian parties.
John Steenhuisen, leader of the Democratic Alliance , predicted that no single party would win an outright majority, creating an opening for his alliance of smaller parties.
That outcome is somewhat unrealistic, however. A more likely positive outcome for Israel is that the ANC has to build a coalition with more moderate parties that blunt some of its most aggressive moves against Israel.
There is also hope that Pandor will be replaced, taking one of the most anti-Israel senior ANC figures off the stage.
Though there might be some small moves in a less hostile direction, there is only so far an ANC-led government would go. It will remain implacably hostile to Israel in its DNA, and diplomatic ties between the countries will likely remain non-existent. South Africa’ hasn’t had an ambassador in Israel since 2019, and Israel recalled its envoy in November of last year.
Israel will have to look elsewhere on the continent for support, an effort that has achieved marked success in recent years.
AFP contributed to this report.
