Analysis of 2022 election finds correlation between religious identity and voting preference

Ariela Karmel is a political correspondent at The Times of Israel. She previously reported for Calcalist and Haaretz. She holds an MA in Middle Eastern and African History from Tel Aviv University and a BA in Political Science from the University of British Columbia.

People walk past an election campaign billboard showing Benjamin Netanyahu, former Israeli prime minister and the head of Likud party, in Bnei Brak, Israel, October 25, 2022. (Oded Balilty/AP)
People walk past an election campaign billboard showing Benjamin Netanyahu, former Israeli prime minister and the head of Likud party, in Bnei Brak, Israel, October 25, 2022. (Oded Balilty/AP)

An analysis of the 2022 election by the Israel Democracy Institute finds a strong correlation between religiosity and voting patterns, with more religiously observant Jewish Israelis overwhelmingly backing the parties that now make up the governing coalition, while secular voters are far more likely to support the opposition.

According to the analysis, 97 percent of ultra-Orthodox voters cast their ballots for parties that now make up the hardline coalition, with 58% voting for United Torah Judaism and 28% for Shas.

Eighty percent of national religious voters backed the coalition, including 45% who voted for the joint far-right Religious Zionism-Otzma Yehudit list led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, while 22.5% voted for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud.

Among religious Israelis who identify as traditional, 66.5% voted for coalition parties, with 46.5% backing Likud.

By contrast, only 24% of secular Israelis voted for parties that now make up the coalition. Thirty-nine percent voted for Yesh Atid, followed by 20% for Likud and 16% for Labor and Meretz, which have since merged to form the Democrats.

The analysis draws on 20 surveys conducted between November 2022 and October 2023 and includes 12,322 Jewish Israelis aged 18 and over.

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