Prospects of a phased deal based on Israel’s May proposal ‘close to zero’ – report

The chances of a phased hostage-ceasefire agreement being achieved on the basis of Israel’s May proposal are “close to zero,” Channel 12 reports, citing unnamed sources in the Israeli security establishment.

It says there is “very broad pessimism” among the Israeli negotiators.

The US, which had indicated it was planning to present a new bridging proposal in the next two or three days, is now regarded as unlikely to do so, it adds.

The report cites immense frustration among Israel’s negotiators who, it says, had believed it was possible to at least reach an agreement between Israel and the mediators that would then be conveyed to Hamas.

But, says the report, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Hebrew press conference last Monday, at which he insisted repeatedly on maintaining IDF control of the Philadelphi Corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border — a stance that was not specified in the Netanyahu-approved May proposal — “buried” the chances of such an agreement. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar then hardened his positions, the report says.

The prospects of progress were further dented when Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said in an interview last night that Philadelphi was not his only “red line,” and that he also opposed an IDF withdrawal from the Netzarim Corridor and the release of Palestinian security prisoners serving terms for murder. Essentially, says the report, the position set out by Smotrich, head of the far-right Religious Zionism party that is a crucial element in Netanyahu’s coalition, “wiped out” Israel’s May proposal.

Channel 12 quotes a source familiar with the negotiations saying: “It appears that the current proposal will not come to fruition at this time. There is no prospect of a phased deal.”

The report elaborates that it will thus not be possible to soon free the approximately 30 living hostages who were to be freed in the first phase — so-called “humanitarian” hostages including children, female soldiers, women, the elderly and the sick.

It quotes sources in the defense establishment calling the current situation “fateful,” too, as regards the north, in that the absence of a deal could also mean an escalation in hostilities with Hezbollah, which some had assessed might agree to halt its attacks if an Israel-Hamas deal was reached.

Channel 12 adds that families of hostages with dual Israeli-American citizenship are also hearing that the Biden Administration is less optimistic than it was a week ago, when they were told it was working hard and fast on a new proposal.

That effort is ongoing, but the US mediators do not want to present a new proposal unless or until they see signs of potential progress. For now, they are urging fellow mediators Qatar and Egypt to see “what Hamas’s limits are,” the report says.