US official: Highly unlikely that IDF will launch Rafah offensive before Ramadan begins

Jacob Magid is The Times of Israel's US bureau chief

Kites are flown over Rafah as smoke billows following Israeli bombardment on Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip on February 20, 2024. (Said Khatib/AFP)
Kites are flown over Rafah as smoke billows following Israeli bombardment on Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip on February 20, 2024. (Said Khatib/AFP)

It is highly unlikely that Israel will launch its major planned military operation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins around March 10, a senior US official tells The Times of Israel.

The IDF is still finishing up major operations in Khan Younis, north of Rafah, and has not finalized its plan to ensure that the million-plus Palestinians currently sheltering in the latter city will be protected once the Israeli operation against Hamas’s remaining battalions there begins, the US official says.

Any plan requiring the evacuation of that many Palestinian civilians and the establishment of new humanitarian mechanisms to support them will take weeks to implement, the US official speculates.

War cabinet minister Benny Gantz appeared to confirm that timeline earlier this week, saying that Israel will operate in Rafah if the hostages aren’t returned by Ramadan.

US President Joe Biden has stressed that such a plan is necessary before Israel launches any major offensive in Rafah and indicated Friday that the operation should not commence while hostage negotiations are ongoing.

An Israeli official tells The Times of Israel that the IDF plans to evacuate the civilians in Rafah to an area between Khan Younis and Wadi Gaza, which bisects the Strip.

The US official indicates that failure to start the Rafah operation before Ramadan may force Israel to wait until after the holy month is over to begin the offensive.

The Biden administration is working to secure a hostage deal before Ramadan begins, a second US official told The Times of Israel earlier this month, adding that Washington wants to use the humanitarian pause secured by the hostage deal to negotiate a more permanent ceasefire.

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