Netanyahu said hardening stance on hostage deal based on intel that Hamas ‘weakened’

Hamas has softened some of its stances in hostage talks, with intelligence assessments indicating the terror group wants a ceasefire in Gaza due to its weakening military position, the Axios outlet reported Thursday, citing Israeli and American officials.

An Israeli official involved in the negotiations told Axios that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in turn, has toughened Israel’s demands for a deal as a result of this intelligence, explaining that the premier “is trying to use Hamas’s weakness to get as much as he can out of the negotiations.”

“But there is a risk that he will go too far and the negotiations collapse,” the official said, adding that the premier wants a deal, but is willing to play hardball.

Mediators from the United States, Egypt and Qatar are working to close a deal that would include the release of hostages seized by Hamas during its rampage in southern Israeli communities on October 7, along with an end to the war in Gaza that was triggered by the devastating attack.

A senior American official and several others from Israel told Axios that US and Israeli intelligence had assessed that pressure from Israel’s ongoing military offensive in Gaza and the international community has pushed Hamas closer to agreeing to a deal.

The officials said that some senior Hamas commanders in Gaza have communicated to the Hamas political leadership based in Doha, Qatar, that the situation in Gaza is urgent and that they want — and need — a ceasefire, Israel and US officials said.

A Washington Post report on Wednesday cited a US official as saying that Hamas is in “rough shape,” running out of ammunition and supplies. That official said the terror group, the de facto regime in Gaza, is facing growing discontent from civilians who are more vocally demanding a ceasefire.

PM’s toughened terms

Netanyahu laid out his position on Thursday as Israeli negotiators were departing to Cairo for further mediated deliberations on a hostage-for-ceasefire deal with Hamas. The government is facing growing public pressure to reach a hostage release deal after over nine months of war.

The prime minister specified the four non-negotiable conditions for a deal which he first set out on Sunday, calling them “iron principles.”

However, he toughened two of those four previously declared non-negotiable terms.

Any deal, he said Thursday, “must allow Israel to resume fighting until all the goals of the war are achieved.” It must also prevent weapons from being smuggled into Gaza from Egypt, “primarily by means of Israeli control of the Philadelphi Corridor and the Rafah Crossing,” he went on, adding the references to the area that runs along the Gaza-Egypt border, and the Rafah border crossing there, a day after Defense Minister Yoav Gallant had offered leeway as regards to the border corridor.

Furthermore, said Netanyahu on Thursday, any deal must prevent “the return of armed terrorists, and the entry of weapons, to the north of the Strip.” And finally, he said, any deal must, “already in the first stage of the framework, maximize the number of living hostages that will be freed.” He had not specified the “first stage” when declaring this demand on Sunday.

He said he was sure that if Israel stands behind these conditions, “we’ll achieve a deal that will free our hostages and also ensure that we will continue to fight until all aims are achieved. The way to free our hostages is to continue to pressure Hamas with all our strength.”

However, Netanyahu’s renewed demand for any Gaza truce deal to prevent the return of weapons and armed terrorists to the Strip’s north violates prior agreements with mediators and will complicate or even thwart negotiations, according to unnamed senior security sources cited by Channel 12 news.

The network cited sources familiar with the talks as saying that in its May 27 response to mediators, Israel gave up its initial demand to maintain control of the so-called Netzarim Corridor, which currently splits the Strip in two and prevents the return of gunmen to the northern part.

“The demand to monitor everyone moving north is a retraction of our concession on the matter,” one source is quoted as saying. “The IDF will know how to deal with the situation even if armed fighters return to the north, and we can find a solution with the Americans.

“This is a demand that will prevent a deal,” the source said. “In the best case, it is an obstacle that will make the continuation [of talks] more difficult, and in the worst case, it is aimed as a spoke in the negotiations’ wheel and at eliminating the ability to reach a deal.

“We are in a crucial two days for the deal to succeed. It’s either now or in a very long time, perhaps never. Prime Minister Netanyahu added demands that deviate from the agreements with the mediators.”

Two Israeli officials told Axios that there had been progress regarding security on the Egypt-Gaza border. Israel is demanding measures to prevent Hamas from digging smuggling tunnels under the boundary to bring weapons into Gaza. The Israel Defense Forces, which captured the area in May, says it has found over 20 smuggling tunnels under the border.

The Israeli officials told the outlet that Egypt has agreed to construct an underground wall to block tunnels and that the US will fund its construction. As part of the arrangement, Israel is also asking for access to sensors and cameras that are to be installed on the Egyptian side of the border. It is unclear if those demands will be met, the report said.

Israel has a similar subterranean barrier along its border with Gaza, intended to prevent Hamas from digging attack tunnels as it has done in the past.

Axios cited Israeli officials as saying the current ceasefire proposal allows for unarmed, displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza, but doesn’t specify how that will be achieved while preventing Hamas from relocating fighters and weapons as well.

Israeli, Egyptian, Qatari and US mediators are striving to find a mechanism that would enable that, officials said.

Barnea said to back Netanyahu

Amid the ramped-up hostage deal negotiations in Qatar and Cairo, Mossad chief David Barnea defended Netanyahu’s “non-negotiable” conditions for a deal, and told a security cabinet meeting that without them, Israel would not win its war against Hamas, according to the Ynet news outlet.

Ynet said that Barnea told the meeting’s attendees that “without the clauses that Prime Minister Netanyahu insists on, we will not be able to renew the war [after the deal], and without it, we will not win and we will not return all of the hostages.

“This is what is needed for the good of the State of Israel,” Barnea added.

Barnea addressed the security cabinet upon his return to Israel from negotiations in Qatar. Following Barnea’s return, Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar departed Israel for Cairo to continue negotiations there.

According to Haaretz, Barnea told the security cabinet that insisting Israel can resume fighting in the terms of the deal will give the country leverage to prevent Hamas from changing the identities of the hostages it intends to release.

The clause will also ensure that the deal doesn’t fall apart before reaching the second phase, Haaretz added, citing unnamed sources familiar with the contents of the security cabinet meeting.

The Israeli-drafted outline for a hostage deal and truce in Gaza, publicized by US President Biden at the end of May, proposed a phased deal that would include a “full and complete” six-week ceasefire that would see the release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly, and the wounded, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian security prisoners.

During these 42 days, Israeli forces would also withdraw from densely populated areas of Gaza and allow the return of displaced people to their homes in northern Gaza.

Over that period, Hamas, Israel and mediators would also negotiate the terms of the second phase that could see the release of the remaining male hostages, both civilians and soldiers. In return, Israel would free additional Palestinian security prisoners and detainees. The third phase would see the return of any remaining hostages, including bodies of dead captives, and the start of a years-long reconstruction project.

The sides have been reported to differ on core aspects of the transition from the halt in fighting in the first stage to a potential permanent ceasefire. Israel is demanding “an exit point” between the two stages, in line with Netanyahu’s insistence that the war will not end until Hamas is destroyed. Hamas, by contrast, wants the initial ceasefire maintained for as long as is needed until negotiations are finalized on a permanent ceasefire and an end to the war, which Jerusalem says could enable Hamas to drag out the talks indefinitely.

Negotiations mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the US have so far failed to secure a truce in Gaza and release of captives there, since a weeklong ceasefire in November saw Hamas free 105 hostages in return for 240 Palestinian prisoners.

However, talks progressed after Hamas recently said it dropped its demand that the framework include an upfront commitment from Israel to end the war during the first phase — though the terror group is still demanding a commitment to that effect from mediators.

As part of a hostage deal, Israel would be expected to release hundreds of Palestinian security convicts it has imprisoned, including those involved in deadly terror attacks. Haaretz cited Palestinian sources familiar with the talks as saying that Israel has vetoed the release of 15 security prisoners that Hamas is demanding be set free as they have “significant symbolism.”

Mediators are seeking to solve the issue, possibly with release to exile for the prisoners, or, for those who are residents of the West Bank, transfer to the Gaza Strip. The sources noted to Haaretz that at the start of the negotiations Israel had vetoed a far higher number of prisoners, but that has dropped as talks progressed.

At a news conference on Thursday, Biden said Israel and Hamas had agreed on the framework for a deal but that there were still gaps to close. He also said “It’s time to end this war,” but added: “It doesn’t mean walk away from going after [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar and Hamas.”

The war in Gaza erupted after Hamas’s October 7 massacre, which saw some 3,000 terrorists burst across the border into Israel by land, air and sea, killing some 1,200 people and seizing 251 hostages, mostly civilians, many amid acts of brutality and sexual assault.

Israel responded with a military offensive to destroy Hamas, topple its Gaza regime, and free the hostages.

It is believed that 116 hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7 remain in Gaza — not all of them alive — after 105 civilians were released from Hamas captivity during a weeklong truce in late November, and four hostages were released prior to that.

Seven hostages have been rescued by troops alive, and the bodies of 19 hostages have also been recovered, including three mistakenly killed by the military.

The IDF has confirmed the deaths of 42 of those still held by Hamas, citing new intelligence and findings obtained by troops operating in Gaza. One more person has been listed as missing since October 7, and their fate is still unknown.

Hamas has also been holding two Israeli civilians who entered the Strip in 2014 and 2015, as well as the bodies of two IDF soldiers who were killed in 2014.