Two Arab parties hold the balance of power

Poll shows pro-Netanyahu bloc pulling even with opponents, in sharp shift

TV survey puts dueling blocs at 53 seats each, well shy of a majority, with PM appearing to benefit from Ofer Winter’s predicted entry to the Knesset and Religious Zionism-Zehut merger

By ToI Staff 3 September 2026, 6:53 am

Edit

Left: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a state ceremony on Mount Herzl, in Jerusalem, August 05, 2026. (Chaim Goldberg/FLASH90); (right) Head of the Yashar party Gadi Eisenkott attends a conference at the Peres center in Tel Aviv. July 12, 2026. (Miriam Alster/FLASH90)

An Israeli television poll released Wednesday showed the bloc of parties supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pulling even with his Zionist opponents, in a stark shift from most recent polls. Neither side was forecast to be close to attaining a Knesset majority, with two mainly Arab parties holding the balance of power.

The Channel 13 poll had the pro- and anti-Netanyahu blocs winning 53 seats each if the October 27 elections were held today, eight shy of a 61-seat majority. The Arab parties held the balance of 14 seats.

That result marked a significant change from the network’s previous poll a week ago, which showed the opposition leading the pro-Netanyahu parties 57 to 48, with 15 for the Arab parties.

The change appeared largely due to two right-wing pro-Netanyahu parties making it into the Knesset: Ofer Winter’s People of Israel, with four seats, and the merger of the far-right Religious Zionism and Zehut parties, with six.

In addition, Netanyahu’s Likud party narrowed its gap with the election frontrunner, the opposition Yashar party led by Gadi Eisenkot. Last week, Channel 13 found that Yashar would win 24 seats and Likud 19. This week, however, Yashar was predicted to win 22 seats, just one more than Likud’s 21.

The addition of Jewish former lawmaker Yoav Segalovitz to the Arab Ra’am party did not change its polling performance, at five seats. But the mainly Arab Joint List has been rising in recent surveys, reaching 9 seats in the new poll and weakening the Zionist opposition bloc.

The survey also showed a further slide in support for B’Yachad, the joint slate led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Opposition Leader Yair Lapid, which dropped from 13 to 12 seats.

Failing to clear the minimum vote threshold needed to enter the Knesset were the Unity party of former Likudniks Yuli Edelstein and Gilad Erdan, Benny Gantz’s Blue and White and Yoaz Hendel and Chili Tropper’s Zionist Home-The Reservists.

The poll, which was published ahead of the September 8 deadline for parties to file their slates of candidates, had 940 respondents and a 3.4% margin of error.