BEIRUT — Syria’s civil war has ravaged the country’s economy, causing damage that could take years to repair, and people have been forced to focus on finding basic necessities, like food and fuel, experts say.
Gross domestic product has plunged nearly 40 percent since 2010, the year before the war began, as production has seized up, the regime been rocked by international sanctions and oil fields lost to rebels.
But so far, the economy has avoided total collapse, with the currency stabilizing of late despite a massive loss in value and crucial financial support forthcoming from key allies Russia and Iran.
“The Syrian economy has transformed dramatically… the economy that we used to know has been destroyed to a large extent,” said economist Jihad Yazigi, author of The Syria Report, an economic news site.
“There are vast segments of the Syrian economy that have stopped production and many economy players have left the country,” he said.
“The war has produced a new economy, which is what we call a war economy.”
“Robbery, kidnappings, checkpoints and control over oil fields… have become the sources of income.”
“Both the informal economy and the war economy are on the rise. There are some businessmen who have benefited from the war, and new institutions and networks have grown with it,” he added.
The conflict began in March 2011, when the regime cracked down brutally on peaceful anti-government protests.
The opposition took up arms and the country spiraled into a civil war that has killed more than 140,000 people and displaced nearly half the population internally or externally.
“Syria’s economy has become a war economy because Syria is a battleground where there are multiple, complex fronts,” according to Mazen Irsheid of Jordan’s United Financial Investment Co.
The effects on the economy have been devastating. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) estimated GDP will plunge this year to $34 billion from $60 billion in 2010.
The United Nations says the unemployment rate is nearly 50% and that half Syria’s population of 23 million is now living below the poverty line, with 4.4 million languishing in “extreme poverty.”
The dire economic straits have forced Syria’s residents to adjust, as people focusing on securing such basic needs as bread, tea and sugar.
According to official Syrian estimates, tourism sector has lost $1.5 billion and manufacturing has lost $2.2 billion since the war began.
Oil production has fallen by 96%, from 385,000 barrels a day to just 14,000.
The industry has been doubly buffeted, first by European sanctions and then by the gradual loss to rebels of the country’s biggest oil fields, in the east.
Europe once bought 90% of Syria’s oil, but now production is too meagre to even meet domestic needs of around 150,000 barrels a day.
That has forced Syria to make up the shortfall by importing some $400 million of oil a month from key ally Iran.
Help from Iran, Russia
Tehran has proved key in propping up Syria’s economy, extending the regime a $3.6 billion credit line in July.
And Syria’s other key foreign backer, Russia, has played its part in supporting the country’s flailing economy.
In December, with Moscow’s backing, Damascus signed a deal authorizing a Russian firm to explore its territorial waters for oil and gas.
“Syria is still on its feet economically speaking, thanks to the support of its allies,” Irsheid said. “As a result, we can’t expect that it will collapse economically anytime soon.”
Other factors have also kept the economy from the brink, including the exodus of some 2.5 million citizens-turned-refugees, government spending cuts and some international aid, experts say.
Irsheid said the regime’s recent military advances, backed by Lebanon’s Shiite Hezbollah movement, had also helped to stabilize some economic indicators.
“In the past few months, the status of the Syrian pound has improved, even on the black market, because of those military gains on the ground.”
The EIU, in its 2014-2018 forecast, predicts the economy will “bottom out” this year as it adjusts “to the realities of the military stalemate.”
But long-term, the outlook remains bleak, with it predicting the economy would still be “almost one third smaller at the end of the forecast period (2018) compared with 2010.”
Irsheid said: “even after the end of the crisis in Syria… I don’t think the economic situation will be good.
“In fact, it may be worse than it is now. Syria has entered a long tunnel that will extend beyond the end of the crisis.”