After Trump turns against Zelensky and other allies, could Israel be next in line?
Overjoyed by US president’s return to White House, Netanyahu is determined to avoid any daylight between him and country’s ‘best friend,’ but cracks have emerged over hostage talks
Lazar Berman is The Times of Israel's diplomatic reporter
One of the most dramatic meetings to take place in the White House played out painfully in front of cameras late last month, as Ukraine’s wartime President Volodymyr Zelensky found himself in the crosshairs of US President Donald Trump and his vice president.
The moment was shocking for a number of reasons. World leaders often disagree over pivotal issues — of which the war in Ukraine is certainly one — but rarely so openly.
More significantly, it laid bare to Ukraine and to long-standing American allies that Trump had decisively upended years of US policy on a conflict that many see as central to their national security.
Since the Bill Clinton administration, the US has been imposing sanctions on Russia, a process that was ramped up significantly after its 2014 invasion of Ukraine. Even Trump in his first administration signed into law a set of new sanctions against Russia, and the Biden administration was by far Kyiv’s largest military and financial backer since Russia’s full-scale assault in 2022.
“Trump has utterly changed the rules of engagement,” wrote The Guardian’s Simon Tisdall. “World leaders must learn this – and quickly.”
It seems that European and Arab leaders are, by now, well aware of this fact.
But is Israel?
The elephant in the room
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also seems to view Trump’s return to office as a game-changer, but in the best possible way.
His relationship with Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden was often rocky. Though the pair have known each other for decades, the White House was sharply critical of the prime minister forming a coalition with incendiary far-right figures in late 2022, and expressed deep concern about the government’s judicial overhaul plans in 2023.
After the Hamas attacks, Biden became the first US president in history to visit Israel during a time of war, and expressed deep solidarity with the country and its people. But over the next year, the two leaders publicly and privately sparred over Netanyahu’s handling of the war and hostage negotiations.
Shortly after the US elections that brought Trump back to power, Netanyahu hammered the Biden administration for its wartime positions during a speech to the Knesset.
In these first weeks of his second term, Trump has been everything Netanyahu could have wanted, and more. The US president restored the maximum pressure policy against Iran and its nuclear program. He and his team have promised repeatedly to work with Israel “to ensure Hamas is eliminated” — not just pushed out of ruling Gaza. They also promise to “open the gates of hell” if the terror group doesn’t immediately release all hostages. Trump also proposed a plan to evacuate Palestinians from Gaza.
Trump wants to broker the Saudi-Israeli normalization deal. And he is going after the International Criminal Court for targeting Israel’s leaders, with obsessive Israel critics like South Africa and Ireland in his sights.
A Republican is back in the Oval Office, but there is another elephant in the room, one that many observers have pointed to but Israeli leaders are understandably loath to mention publicly.
If Trump could turn on Ukraine, not to mention close American allies like Canada, Colombia, and Jordan, then who says he won’t do the same to Israel?
If Trump could turn on Ukraine, not to mention close American allies like Canada, Colombia, and Jordan, then who says he won’t do the same to Israel?
Rendering the question more pressing, Trump has already done so to Netanyahu himself. After four years of working together during Trump’s first term — which included historic achievements like the Abraham Accords and decisions like moving the US embassy to Jerusalem — Trump lashed out at his erstwhile ally, accusing him of disloyalty and saying “F*ck him,” after Netanyahu congratulated Biden on his presidential victory.
And amid all the support Trump and his team have given Israel, there are fissures emerging that make the entire facade of support seem less stable than the Israeli government wants to believe.
Trump sent a letter to Iran’s leadership this week urging talks with the Islamic Republic on its nuclear program. Though he promises Iran will not be allowed to attain a nuclear weapon and hinted at the possibility of an attack on nuclear sites, if Tehran plays its card right and dangles a deal in front of him, it could create friction between Israel and the US.
Recent developments in hostage talks with Hamas are more concerning.
Trump’s hostage envoy Adam Boehler met with senior Hamas officials in Doha last week without Israel’s knowledge. Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer had a tense phone call with Boehler when Israel got wind of the unprecedented direct talks.
Boehler’s round of interviews on Sunday with US and Israeli news shows only added to the confusion and friction. Israeli officials told The Times of Israel they were surprised to hear the envoy comment that the US is “not an agent of Israel.”
Some understood the phrase to be an intentional shot across the bow from the White House, and not a careless construction.
Boehler also referred to Israeli hostages in Hamas captivity as “prisoners,” and Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails as “hostages.” He was dismissive of Dermer’s concerns, and indicated that the US wouldn’t have agreed to the deal that Israel had consented to, because of the high number of Palestinian security prisoners being released for each hostage.
It’s hard to imagine anyone is more sanguine about the US-Israel relationship in the near term after Boehler’s interviews.
The roots of an alliance
Trump’s appointments of senior defense and diplomatic personnel should indicate to Israel that the administration will remain very supportive of Israel, said Daniel Byman, senior fellow at CSIS and professor at Georgetown University.
But the potential for surprises exists, he cautioned: “In general, Trump is upending long-standing US policies and alliances — so US policies in the Middle East could change radically and unpredictably, even though I think Trump will stand behind Israel.”
Arkady Mil-Man, former Israeli ambassador to Moscow and head of the Russia Program at the Institute for National Security Studies, agreed that there is no imminent danger that Trump will turn against Israel.
There is reason for concern, however. The very basis for an enduring post-World War II Western alliance is being undermined by the current White House, he argued.
“That alliance is based on shared values,” posited Mil-Man, pointing at “individual rights, freedom of speech, a free economy, respect for the rights of minorities.”
In his telling, an alliance based on values is resilient and persistent. But an interests-based pact could shift as those interests — or the perception of those interests — do.
Others are more assured about the next four years with Trump in the White House.
“There’s no cause to worry,” said Danielle Pletka, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.
She asserted that Trump sees the logic of the US relationship with Israel, and understands that the two countries face shared enemies in the region.
“He doesn’t see the logic of supporting Ukraine, and worries it is a needless war,” she explained. “He’s wrong, which is why the Ukrainians needed to work harder to solidify the US commitment.”
Dangers beyond Gaza
Even if Washington and Jerusalem succeed in returning to the “no daylight” approach on Gaza, other issues on the agenda could pull the two sides apart.
Russia said last week that it was happy to help mediate Trump’s talks with Iran on its nuclear program and its support for armed proxies.
Israel wants to see the US taking an aggressive stance against Iran, either forcing the regime to agree to give up its nuclear ambitions or offering a real threat of military force. Increased Russian involvement, and an open line of communication between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, make it less likely that the US will align itself fully with Israel on the Iranian threat.
Trump wants to broker the landmark Middle East peace deal, a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. But Riyadh is adamant that its commitment to a Palestinian state on the pre-1967 lines with East Jerusalem as its capital is “firm and unwavering.” Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said this explicitly in September.
Making such a deal could put Trump in contention for a Nobel Peace Prize, something he badly wants and believes he deserves. Senior administration officials regularly bring up the possibility of their boss winning it.
But Netanyahu insists publicly he will never allow a Palestinian state, and his coalition would likely fall apart if he ever moved in that direction.
Trump offered a “deal of the century” for a Palestinian state in 2020. He seems less insistent on a two-state solution, but that could certainly shift.
‘A cautionary tale’
When confronting the current challenges and whatever emerges down the road, Israel would be wise to see the Zelensky meeting as “a cautionary tale,” said former Israeli ambassador to the US Michael Oren.
Though Israel doesn’t come with “the same baggage that Zelensky does,” Oren said, there’s a personal element to the relationship with Trump that Israel has to prioritize.
“We always have to stay on the right side of history,” Oren cautioned. “We also have to stay on the right side of President Trump.”
It’s a sign of a fundamental weakness in Israel’s position — it can’t always act based on its values and what it wants to represent in the world, especially when its national security is at risk.
The UN vote last month on Ukraine’s territorial integrity was a blatant example of this reality. Israel joined the US and Russia — and North Korea – in rejecting a strongly worded condemnation of Russia’s invasion of its neighbor on the war’s third anniversary.
“This goes against everything we’ve stood for since this war started, but we had no choice,” Oren maintained, “because it’s a matter of national security. It’s either in our national security or Ukraine’s national security. We have to choose ours. Not an easy decision, but a necessary decision.”
Netanyahu is committed entirely to this approach. He enthusiastically backed Trump’s Gaza Riviera proposal, and praises Trump whenever he can, calling him “the greatest friend that Israel has ever had in the White House.”
The prime minister seems to have developed an understanding of what it takes to be in Trump’s good graces. And thus far in Trump’s second term, he has been willing to say what is necessary to remain there.
Argued Pletka: “Israel should provide an example for Zelensky about how to manage an occasionally challenging relationship. Netanyahu managed Biden, and stifled his anger about problems in the relationship because he had his eye on the ball. Zelensky could learn a step or two from him.”
