Inside storyArab diplomat: US just bringing up ideas, hoping one sticks

Inverting its approach, US pursues calm in Lebanon that will then spread to Gaza

After months of arguing truce in Gaza is needed ahead of one in Lebanon, Biden aides say Hezbollah willingness to disconnect from Strip offers opportunity, and hope Hamas will take notice

Jacob Magid

Jacob Magid is The Times of Israel's US bureau chief

US Special envoy Amos Hochstein, center, gives a statement to the media after his meeting with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri in Beirut, Lebanon, Tuesday, June 18, 2024.  (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)
US Special envoy Amos Hochstein, center, gives a statement to the media after his meeting with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri in Beirut, Lebanon, Tuesday, June 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

WASHINGTON – The Biden administration now views securing a ceasefire in Lebanon as the best way to end the war in Gaza, two US officials told The Times of Israel on Wednesday, acknowledging that Washington has flipped its assessment in recent weeks after months of asserting that calm in the Strip is what would de-escalate tensions along the Blue Line.

The shift follows the significant widening of Israeli operations against Hezbollah in mid-September, which included mass detonations of the terror group’s communication devices (which Israel has not claimed credit for), the elimination of much of its top leadership and a limited ground invasion that has dismantled much of its military infrastructure in southern Lebanon.

Before those developments, US officials repeatedly pointed to Hezbollah’s vow not to cease its cross-border attacks against Israel until there is a ceasefire, meaning Jerusalem must accept that the road to calm along the Lebanon border runs through the Palestinian enclave.

“The first thing that we want to get is a ceasefire in Gaza… because we think that would allow us to unlock a diplomatic resolution across the Blue Line,” said State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller on September 17, referring to the demarcation line between Israel and Lebanon.

The same message was repeated by Biden officials in August, July, June and May, as they prioritized efforts to secure a hostage release and ceasefire deal in Gaza.

But amid Israel’s intensified military campaign against Hezbollah, officials from the terror group began indicating they were prepared to accept a ceasefire, regardless of whether a truce is reached in Gaza beforehand.

Civil defense rescuers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike on Hezbollah in the village of Haret Saida, near Lebanon’s southern city of Sidon, on October 29, 2024. (Mahmoud Zayyat/AFP)

The military gains by Israel and the willingness of Hezbollah to de-link from the conflict in Gaza have allowed the US to make progress in recent days toward a ceasefire along the Blue Line.

Accordingly, US special envoy Amos Hochstein will arrive in Jerusalem on Thursday for meetings with top Israeli officials about his new proposal for a ceasefire in Lebanon.

A draft of the US proposal published Wednesday by the Kan public broadcaster describes a 60-day implementation period for the deal, during which Israel would initially withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon and the Lebanese Armed Forces would deploy there instead, dismantling remaining Hezbollah infrastructure in the process.

Through the establishing of new enforcement mechanisms, the US proposal aims to ensure the full enforcement of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, whose stipulations that Hezbollah must disarm and retreat beyond the Litani River, 18 miles north of the border, have gone unimplemented since it was adopted at the end of the 2006 Second Lebanon War.

Hochstein’s decision to travel to Israel followed indications from Jerusalem and Beirut that they were prepared to move forward with the US proposal and that Hezbollah was willing to follow suit, an Israeli official told The Times of Israel.

The Israeli official clarified that a deal wasn’t likely before next week’s US presidential election, but said a one-month timeframe for its approval was “very realistic.”

People watch Hezbollah’s newly named leader Naim Qassem delivering a televised speech, in the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, October 30, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

Taking Hezbollah at its word

Meanwhile, the US has begun changing its rhetoric regarding the connection between the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.

“We have always thought that [a ceasefire in Lebanon] should be delinked from Gaza,” Miller said on Wednesday.

The US has indeed spoken out against Hezbollah’s decision to begin launching near-daily attacks at Israel on October 8, 2023, and has rejected the notion that it amounts to solidarity with the Palestinians.

At the same time, Washington had all but adopted as its operating theory the Hezbollah assertion that calm on the Israel-Lebanon border was predicated on a Gaza ceasefire.

Asked last month why calm in Gaza would likely have to come first, Miller responded, “It is the fact that Hezbollah has made clear there won’t be any end to the terrorist attacks against Israel until there’s a ceasefire in Gaza.”

Palestinians search through the rubble of a building after an Israeli strike in Beit Lahiya, in the northern Gaza Strip, October 29, 2024. (AFP)

Stuck in Gaza

A US official speaking to The Times of Israel maintained that Hezbollah’s willingness to disconnect from the Gaza war not only boosts the chances for a ceasefire in Lebanon, but also improves the prospects of Hamas subsequently easing its stance in hostage talks when it understands that it’s increasingly fighting Israel alone.

Mediators from the US, Egypt and Qatar have sought to restart hostage talks since Israel killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar two weeks ago.

Washington has framed Sinwar’s death as an opportunity to achieve a breakthrough, arguing that the Hamas leader was the primary obstacle to a deal.

Egypt and Qatar have been less convinced, arguing that Sinwar’s killing de-centralizes Hamas’s decision-making process, thereby complicating efforts to secure a deal.

Nonetheless, Egypt proposed a 12-day ceasefire earlier this week, during which four hostages seized by Hamas during the October 7 onslaught last year would be released in exchange for at least 100 Palestinian security prisoners. During those 12 days, the sides would agree to negotiate a longer-term hostage deal.

Demonstrators protest for the release of Israelis held hostage in the Gaza Strip and for early elections, near the Knesset in Jerusalem, October 28, 2024. (Arie Leib Abrams/Flash90)

Mediators are working to sell the proposal to the parties, and CIA Director Bill Burns departed for Cairo on Wednesday to discuss the offer further.

A second US official clarified that the US is “working Gaza and Lebanon simultaneously,” noting that both Hochstein and White House Mideast czar Brett McGurk will arrive in Israel on Thursday, with the former tasked with discussing the Lebanon ceasefire and the latter aiming to advance a Gaza truce.

However, the official acknowledged that the Lebanon negotiations are currently better positioned to succeed.

“The hope is that this will then translate to success in Gaza,” said the US official.

CIA Director William Burns (C) departs after testifying before the US Senate on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, March 11, 2024. (Mandel Ngan / AFP)

Does correlation equal causation?

But this isn’t the first time talks for a Lebanon ceasefire appeared more advanced than those in Gaza. In late September, the US unveiled an initiative for a 14-day ceasefire after it believed it had secured the support of Jerusalem and Beirut.

But that effort failed to gain traction, then collapsed altogether when Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah two days later.

The first US official argued that this latest round of Lebanon talks is different because Hezbollah has “dropped Gaza from the equation.” New Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said Wednesday that his group was prepared to reach a ceasefire with Israel if the terms are “suitable,” while making no mention of the ongoing war in the Strip.

An Arab diplomat, also speaking on condition of anonymity, was less generous in his explanation of the shift in the US approach, saying it had more to do with “throwing as many ideas at the wall and hoping one sticks.”

“They had tried the ‘Gaza first’ strategy and those talks are still stuck, so now they’re flipping the script,” said the diplomat.

“If the ‘Lebanon first’ strategy succeeds and a ceasefire in Gaza follows, I’m not so sure correlation will have meant causation,” they added, arguing that each conflict is playing out at its own pace and will wrap up accordingly.

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