The Bennett ultimatum: 7 things to know for November 15

1. Defense or bust: Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman’s sudden resignation from the government Wednesday has sent shockwaves through the press. What it did not do was lead to the immediate announcement of new elections.

• Instead, faced with an ultimatum by Jewish Home to make Naftali Bennett defense minister or let his government collapse, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is now seemingly stuck between a hawk and a hard place, or perhaps playing 3-D Russian roulette.
• As ToI’s Marissa Newman notes, keeping his ultra-Orthodox partners by his side through this term and the next will mean passing legislation on IDF draft deferments for Haredi yeshiva students by December 2. But that means keeping Jewish Home around, which means giving his main rival on the right a boost less than a year before elections.
• “Still stinging from Liberman’s critique of his approach on Gaza, appointing another outspoken hawk to the post may be too high a price for the prime minister to bear,” she writes.
• Walla news reports that the assessment in the coalition is that “Netanyahu is not expected to accede to Bennett’s ultimatum and the chances of early elections are growing, but sources close to Netanyahu say a decision will only be made over the weekend.”

2. Keeping it together: Netanyahu spent much of Wednesday afternoon huddling with coalition party heads to try and keep his government together, which some may think is strange given all the speculation that he was going to call new elections soon anyway to get ahead of any possible indictments.

• In Haaretz, Yossi Verter writes that the Gaza flareup and Israel’s perceived failure may be what’s keeping him from pulling the trigger: “The prime minister wants to keep as much distance from this development as possible. The voters’ anger in some of Likud’s firmest bastions of support, like Sderot and Ashkelon, is fierce and won’t fade so quickly. He of course also doesn’t want to appear as someone who has lost control and whose hand was forced into calling early elections.”
• Yedioth Ahronoth’s Nahum Barnea calls Bennett “childish” for throwing the ultimatum at Netanyahu, but still calls for elections, citing the government’s lack of leadership: “The failure in dealing with Hamas isn’t a product of leadership or public courage but the exact opposite: it comes from a lack of leadership.”
• In pro-Netanyahu Israel Hayom, columnist Haim Shine backs the no-elections position, writing that there’s no reason to act hastily and citing the “left’s cynicism” in blasting the government over its response to the Gaza violence.

3. Poll position: A snap poll by Hadashot news Wednesday night showed Likud still getting 29 Knesset seats, far and away the most, while Liberman’s Israel Beytenu surged from 5 seats to 7.

While there are many reasons to discount such a hasty and likely sloppy poll, ToI editor David Horovitz still has some takeaways, including the fact that Liberman’s number should have jumped much higher, showing he may not get any extra political credit for having quit over Gaza.

Netanyahu, though, could probably take solace: “They may not be too happy with Netanyahu right now, but it is still to him that Israelis look for a solution to Gaza.”

For a selection of other great ToI analysis on Liberman’s exit read Raoul Wootliff’s take on Netanyahu’s difficult choice and Raphael Ahren’s look at why the prime minister may actually be fine with Liberman bolting.

4. Minister in name only: Indeed, rather than get a boost from his bad-ass move, Liberman takes fresh heat and is remembered unkindly by many in the press.

• “The serial quitter goes back to his cushy spot,” reads the headline of a front page analysis by Israel Hayom’s Moti Tuchfeld. In the same paper Amnon Lord flogs him for giving Hamas a “free victory.”
• Haaretz’s Amos Harel writes that it was almost like he was never there, looking at the lack of actual achievements, and editor of the paper Aluf Benn writes that he was never more than a cartoon, or a figurehead.
• “In the army, do-nothing people like him are called ‘sambasim’ – a cynical acronym meaning ‘just wanders around the base.’ The only order he signed off on, the appointment of Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi to be the next chief of staff, was reasonable and obvious,” Benn writes. “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was and remains the sole custodian of Israel’s security.”
• Liberman’s promise to assassinate Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh within 48 hours of becoming defense minister got wide play on TV Wednesday night, and a website meant to mock the ridiculous vow was still counting the seconds he hadn’t kept his promise as of Thursday afternoon.

5. Settling for whatever: ToI’s Jacob Magid looks at one group that had high hopes for Liberman — West Bank settlers — but were not shedding many tears over his departure Wednesday.

• Liberman, a settler himself, signed off on more housing starts in the settlements than any other defense minister over the same time span.
• “And yet, not a single local council leader beyond the Green Line took the opportunity Wednesday to publicly thank him for his service or even positively reflect on his short, albeit impactful, tenure.”
• As for why, it seems settler leaders knew Liberman may have been the one signing the papers, but he wasn’t really in charge.
• “Netanyahu was the one responsible for all the development in Judea and Samaria,” says Jordan Valley Regional Council chairman David Elhayani. “Whenever I needed a plan advanced, I knew that Liberman was not the address.”

6. Minor slip-up: By Thursday morning, though, the villain du jour was Likud’s Tzahi Hanegbi, a Netanyahu ally who dared to say what pretty much everyone was thinking anyway: that the government doesn’t treat rocket fire on the south the same way it would rocket fire on Tel Aviv.

• The comments are quickly and furiously rejected by both his coalition allies, the opposition and pretty much everybody else, including Netanyahu.
• “Why, why” tweets Hadashot news reporter Amit Segal.

Can't overstate how bad – politically – Hanegbi's comment is re southern Israel being different than Tel Aviv. Opposition & media already blasting him (and Bibi) for dereliction of citizenry.

— Neri Zilber (@NeriZilber) November 15, 2018

• While Hanegbi alone is pilloried by allies for a “mistake,” government critics see the comments as revealing a larger malaise within the coalition.
• Yesh Atid head Yair Lapid claims on Twitter that’s it’s not the first time Likud has made such a distinction, calling the comments “morally bankrupt.”
• What nobody is doing is backing Hanegbi, which makes this even worse than the time he was convicted of perjury and kicked out of the Knesset.

7. Dancing in Gaza: While Israel is wringing its hands over what to do about Gaza and political implications, Gazans are celebrating.

• Pictures published Wednesday showed Palestinians giving out sweets to celebrate Liberman’s resignation, which was seen as a major win for the Hamas terror group.
• The group also put out another propaganda song, and like others, it’s pretty damn catchy, even as it threatens death and destruction on Israel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNIEnHZC0Ig

• Some have pointed out, though, that the song is actually a ripoff of a Bollywood tune.