Trump looms over Saudi-hosted meeting of Arab, Muslim leaders on Mideast war
Analysts see Riyadh summit as opportunity for countries to signal what they want from incoming US president; condemnations of Israel, calls for de-escalation expected
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — Arab and Muslim leaders gather in Saudi Arabia Monday for a summit addressing the wars in Gaza and Lebanon that will be a chance to send a message to US President-elect Donald Trump.
The Saudi foreign ministry announced plans for the summit in late October during a meeting, also in Riyadh, of a new “international alliance” to press for the establishment of a Palestinian state.
It comes one year after a similar gathering in Riyadh of the Cairo-based Arab League and the Jeddah-based Organisation of Islamic Cooperation during which leaders condemned Israeli forces’ actions in Gaza targeting the Palestinian terror group Hamas — after it brutally attacked southern Israel in a shock onslaught — as “barbaric.”
This time around, Trump’s election last week for a second term in the White House is likely to be on leaders’ minds, said Anna Jacobs, senior Gulf analyst for the International Crisis Group think tank.
“This summit is very much an opportunity for regional leaders to signal to the incoming Trump administration what they want in terms of US engagement,” she said.
“The message will likely be one of dialogue, de-escalation, and calling out Israeli military campaigns in the region.”
Israel has been at war with Hamas and its allies since October 7, 2023, when thousands of Hamas-led terrorists invaded southern Israel from the Gaza Strip, massacring some 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages, 97 of whom are still being held.
The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry says more than 42,000 people in the Strip have been killed or are presumed dead in the fighting so far, though the toll cannot be verified and does not differentiate between civilians and fighters. Israel says it has killed some 18,000 combatants in battle as of November and another 1,000 terrorists inside Israel on October 7.
Israel has said it seeks to minimize civilian fatalities and stresses that Hamas uses Gaza’s civilians as human shields, fighting from civilian areas including homes, hospitals, schools, and mosques.
Since October 8, Hezbollah-led forces have attacked Israeli communities and military posts along the border with Lebanon on a near-daily basis, with the group saying it is doing so to support Gaza amid the war there. Some 60,000 residents were evacuated from northern Israel towns on the Lebanon border shortly after Hamas’s October 7 onslaught, amid fears Hezbollah would carry out a similar attack, and increasing rocket fire by the terror group.
The regular cross-border exchanges escalated in late September. Amid intensified Hezbollah rocket attacks that have reached the center of the country, Israel has increased its airstrikes and sent ground troops into southern Lebanon vowing to make the border area secure for its northern communities.
Despite criticism of the impact Israel’s military campaign has had on Gaza civilians, outgoing US President Joe Biden ensured that Washington remained Israel’s most important military backer during more than a year of fighting.
Trump has told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he wants the war in Lebanon to end before his inauguration, sources told The Times of Israel last month.
‘Rely on the Saudis’
In his first term, Trump’s actions showed him as an even firmer supporter of Israel than Biden. He defied international consensus by recognizing the united East and West Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moving Washington’s embassy there.
He also endorsed Israeli settlements in the West Bank, which most countries consider illegal under international law.
Under the Abraham Accords, Trump oversaw the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, as well as Morocco.
Though Saudi Arabia did not join those agreements, Trump cultivated warm ties with the Gulf kingdom while in office and has deepened his business connections to the region during the Biden years.
Saudi Arabia has pressed pause on a US-brokered deal where it would recognize Israel in return for security and economic benefits, insisting there will be no diplomatic ties without progress toward a Palestinian state.
Umer Karim, an expert on Saudi politics at the University of Birmingham, said Riyadh will use Monday’s summit to signal to the incoming Trump team that it remains a strong partner.
The message is that Trump “can rely on the Saudis as being representatives of the Muslim world,” and that “if you want to extend American interests in the region, Saudi Arabia is your bet,” he said.
The 57-member OIC and 22-member Arab League include countries that recognize Israel and those firmly opposed to its regional integration.
Last year’s summit in Riyadh saw disagreement on measures like severing economic and diplomatic ties with Israel and disrupting its oil supplies.
Karim said the post-summit statement on Monday will likely “strongly condemn Israel… while also pushing for greater American leverage and diplomacy on the issue.”
The November 2023 meeting featured an appearance by Iran’s then-president Ebrahim Raisi, highlighting how regional diplomacy has changed since Trump was last in office.
In March 2023, Iran and Saudi Arabia announced a China-brokered rapprochement after seven years of severed ties. The Middle East heavyweights have maintained regular high-level contact as part of efforts to contain the ongoing conflicts.
Iranian state media said the chief of staff of the Saudi armed forces was to arrive in Tehran Sunday for talks, a rare high-level visit.
