Expert: To truly behead Hezbollah, Israel must destroy Iranian weapons labs in Syria
As tensions with Tehran escalate, Alma Center pundits urge drying up the supply of weapons to Shiite terror group; warn that terrorists could lay hands on Assad’s chemical arsenal
Gianluca Pacchiani is the Arab affairs reporter for The Times of Israel
In early September, Israeli special forces reportedly carried out a raid on a weapons facility in the Masyaf area in northwestern Syria, killing at least 14 people and wounding 43.
According to international media and unconfirmed Hebrew-language reports, the operation was particularly daring. Security sources quoted by Greek Middle East expert Eva Koulouriotis state that Israeli helicopters reportedly did not land but instead hovered above the target as special forces rappelled down ropes, landed on the ground, seized equipment and documents and destroyed the structure.
The site had been targeted various times in the past. The Masyaf area houses facilities of the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center, known by its French acronym CERS (Centre d’études et de recherches scientifiques), which has branches throughout Syria.
Israeli experts say the CERS network was converted into a military structure in the hands of Iran. The Masyaf area in particular hosts six sites of CERS’s Institute 4000, which focuses on the development and production of the precision middle-range projectiles used by Hezbollah.
In a position paper published in March, the Israeli Alma Research and Education Center, a nonprofit funded by private donations that focuses on security on Israel’s northern border, recommended a wide-scale strike on all CERS facilities in Syria. In a recent interview with The Times of Israel, Tal Beeri, the director of Alma’s Research Department, who served for decades in IDF intelligence units, reiterated the advice, in light of the ground offensive the IDF has launched in Lebanon, and escalating tensions with Tehran.
The CERS network officially serves as Syria’s national military industry apparatus, and employs around 20,000 people among researchers, engineers and military officers in at least 18 facilities spread throughout the country, according to the Alma Center.
The specialized CERS Institute 4000 produces UAVs, bombs and propellant fuels, and also works to upgrade the military capabilities of other Iran-backed militias in Syria and Lebanon, Alma wrote in a recent report.
#EXCLUSIVE #Israel #Syria #Iran #IRGC #Hezbollah
Last Thursday night, around 11:00, residents of western and central Syria heard the sounds of a large number of huge explosions in the direction of the Masyaf area near the Syrian-Lebanese border. These explosions were not the… pic.twitter.com/sWuks7K0PI— Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي (@evacool_) September 11, 2024
In recent years, Iran has reportedly extended its control over CERS and Institute 4000 in particular, with the dual goals of developing a better arsenal for its proxies and significantly shortening the weapons supply chain to Hezbollah.
“Delivering missiles by land from Iran through Iraq and Syria can take days, and the deliveries are exposed to Israeli airstrikes on the way,” said Beeri. “By sea, the shipping takes 11 days, and by air, the amounts that can be sent are limited.”
“CERS has become a strategic asset for Tehran, as it saves the logistical effort of transferring weapons from Iran. In addition, Iran sees it as a ‘growth engine’ for the development and production of weapons such as precision missiles and drones for Hezbollah and militias in Syria,” Beeri said.
The March position paper recommended a wide-scale strike on all Syria-based CERS facilities because such an attack would “greatly affect Hezbollah’s efforts to recover, rearm and restore its military capabilities,” Beeri said.
Furthermore, it would send a strong signal to the Islamic Republic, as tensions escalate between Jerusalem and Tehran following the October 1 massive launch of about 200 ballistic missiles from Iran at Israel.
Beeri said it is not clear why such a large-scale preemptive attack on CERS sites has not yet been conducted, adding that some of the facilities are located underground.
The September raid of the Masyaf CERS center that many attribute to Israel was probably “significant” even though its exact scope is unknown, Beeri said. But all strikes against the weapons research and development network have been “attempts to contain the fire, not to extinguish it.”
“The strikes have not undermined Tehran’s determination,” he added.
The main site of Institute 4000 in the Masyaf area had already been severely damaged in an airstrike attributed to Israel in August 2022. Syrian media reported that firefighting aircraft had been scrambled to extinguish the fires in the area, which were still burning nearly two days after the attack, suggesting the presence of flammable chemicals.
Syria: photo taken few minutes ago. Major blasts still heard in outskirts of Masyaf ~one hour after Israeli bombardment. pic.twitter.com/K7VPw0hosJ
— QalaatM (@QalaatM) August 25, 2022
Determined to pursue its use of the structure, Iran almost immediately took on the reconstruction of the site, contracting construction companies connected to its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to the Alma Center.
Assad’s chemical weapons in Hezbollah’s hands
Chemical weapons are an integral part of the Syrian regime’s arsenal, even though the country committed to their destruction in 2013 by joining the Chemical Weapons Convention.
According to international reports, Assad’s army has used them against rebels in the years after its alleged disarmament, and as recently as 2018 in Douma, outside Damascus. Some of its anti-insurgency operations involved the use of the lethal Sarin nerve gas.
“We cannot exclude a scenario where these substances fall into the hands of Hezbollah. It’s not very likely but it’s possible,” Beeri said. The Alma Center published a report on this scenario in August.
The use of such substances by Hezbollah is not considered probable at the current stage because their handling and storage require specific facilities and know-how.
“We know for sure that Syria has them, but we don’t know about Hezbollah,” said Beeri.
However, if the Lebanese terror group was bent on conducting chemical warfare against Israel, it would have other options.
“Chlorine, for instance, is a very primitive substance, commonly used for civilian and industrial purposes. It can be easily obtained, easily stored and inserted inside the heads of mortar shells and rockets, and it’s lethal. Even ISIS in Syria used it against Assad forces,” said Beeri.
Smuggling routes into Lebanon
Another way for Israel to prevent projectiles manufactured in Syria from falling into the hands of Hezbollah is to cut off the supply chain that leads into Lebanon.
To that effect, the IDF recently conducted aerial strikes against border crossings between the two countries, chief among them the Masnaa crossing, located on the highway between Beirut and Damascus, to prevent trucks from using it while still allowing displaced people fleeing Lebanon into Syria to do so.
On October 4, the IDF also targeted a two-mile tunnel that crossed under the border and was used to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah.
However, the Shiite terror group still has “enormous amounts of weapons” at its disposal, stockpiled in various locations throughout Lebanon, Beeri said.
“Even Hamas today, one year into the war, still manages to launch missiles sporadically. Even with the army inside the Gaza Strip, it still manages to produce some small amounts of projectiles,” Beeri said.
Hezbollah entered the war with far larger stockpiles of weapons than Hamas, distributed over a much larger area than the Gaza Strip, and will be able to sustain a war of attrition with Israel for a long time.
“Even after the outbreak of the war, we know that Hezbollah continued to receive Iranian weapons. They fired brand-new Almas missiles manufactured in 2023,” the expert added.
“We need to halt the supply chain in order to start to dry up the swamp of Hezbollah’s arsenal, but it will be a very long-term effort,” he said.
