A Channel 12 survey indicates that multiple small political parties would not cross the electoral threshold if elections were held today.
This includes the center-left Labor party, Moshe Ya’alon’s center-right Telem, Bezalel Smotrich’s right-wing Jewish Home, Orly Levy-Abekasis’ centrist Gesher, Ofer Shelah’s center-left Tnufa, Itamar Ben-Gvir’s far-right Otzma Yehudit, and Yaron Zelekha’s New Economic party.
Some of those parties are expected to merge with others ahead of a February 4 deadline.
The survey gives Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud the most seats (29), followed by Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope (16), Naftali Bennett’s Yamina (13), Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid (13), the Joint List (10), Shas (8), United Torah Judaism (8), Yisrael Beytenu (7), Ron Huldai’s The Israelis (6), Meretz (5), and Blue and White (5). The figures indicate a majority coalition is likely out of reach for both Netanyahu and his rivals.
The survey also tests how many seats Yamina and New Hope would win if they ran on a joint ticket. It gives the hypothetical combined party 25 seats, four fewer than if they ran independently.
It also finds that if all center-left parties merged, their party would win 28 seats, compared to 30 for Likud.