Why Netanyahu likely won the election

Isaac Herzog has no stable coalition in tonight’s exit polls, so Benjamin Netanyahu’s victory is almost complete.

Zionist Union lost the ability to force a unity government. Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition of Likud, Jewish Home, Yisrael Beytenu, Kulanu and the ultra-Orthodox parties come to a majority of 63. The only hope that the Labor party (which leads the Zionist Union list) has to leave the opposition after 14 years is if Netanyahu, Herzog and Kulanu’s Moshe Kahlon (or other party leaders with similar numbers of seats) all want a unity government. Why would Netanyahu share power if he doesn’t have to? And why would Kahlon work toward a unity government in which his own party’s influence would be dramatically diluted?

Herzog’s last hopes lie with the remaining unknowns: the gaps between tonight’s exit poll results and the official results that will be published Thursday; the votes of soldiers, prisoners and diplomats; the vote-sharing agreements that might give Labor another seat or take away one from Likud (or vice versa, of course). If all those go dramatically in Herzog’s favor, a very unlikely scenario, then things might yet be different.