Obama’s chances for second term may hinge on ability to rebound

Barack Obama is going into the second presidential debate Tuesday night with a second term in the balance. The president’s dismal performance in the first debate on October 3 cost him his lead in national polls and significantly eased Romney’s uphill climb to win the Electoral College.

With such a close race, Tuesday night’s debate is expected to feature aggressive sparring between the two candidates, who will each seek to depict their rival as unfit for the presidency.

The debate will take place at 9 PM Eastern time at Hofstra University in New York, and will follow the town hall format of questions-and-answers with an audience of undecided voters chosen by the Gallup Corporation.

Romney is likely to hammer Obama on continued high unemployment and a weak economy, and on the administration’s incorrect assertion last month that the September 11 attack on the American Consulate in Benghazi, Libya, that killed US Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other American diplomats, was carried out by a spontaneous mob.

The administration now acknowledges the attack was an orchestrated operation by a well-armed group affiliated with al-Qaeda. Republicans contend the administration was late to acknowledge the true nature of the attack because it did not want to undermine the Obama campaign’s narrative that the president has overseen the routing of al-Qaeda around the globe.

In a move likely timed to ease Obama’s response to the charge, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced on Monday that she “takes responsibility” for the security failures surrounding the attack. “I want to avoid some kind of political gotcha,” Clinton told CNN.

For his part, Obama is likely to attack Mitt Romney’s tax policies, which Democrats contend will balloon the deficit. The Romney campaign has not publicized any explanation or detailed responses to questioning about Romney’s economic plans.

The president is also likely to attack Romney’s now-infamous “47 percent” remark, in which he was filmed criticizing the 47% of Americans who don’t pay federal income tax before a group of wealthy donors. Romney has since disavowed the statement.

Almost two weeks after the first presidential debate, Romney’s “debate bump” in the polls has yet to fade, suggesting the decline in support for Obama in the opinions of 70 million estimated viewers was significant and possibly permanent enough to last till Election Day.

All is far from lost for Obama, however, who retains an Electoral College lead even as Romney edges ahead (though within the margin of error) in national polls.

A candidate must win 270 Electoral College votes to win the presidency. Romney currently has an estimated 191 votes from states firmly in the Republican camp, according to RealClearPolitics. Obama, meanwhile, has 201 votes firmly in his camp.

Even when one adds to Romney’s tally states tilting slightly toward the Republicans ahead of the Tuesday debate — Florida, North Carolina and Colorado — Romney still has just 244 votes, 26 shy of victory. All other battleground states lead slightly toward Obama, suggesting that the president’s own route to 270 is slightly easier.

With three weeks to go, the political parties and their Super PAC allies are spending hundreds of millions of dollars on advertising and grassroots activities.

Fundraising continued, with the candidates’ campaign war chests growing in September by $181 million for Obama and $170 million for Romney.

A third presidential debate is scheduled for October 22.