Ben Gvir is preferred successor to Netanyahu among backers of PM’s current bloc — poll

Far-right Otzma Yehudit leader has support of 24% of respondents in newspaper survey, ahead of ex-Mossad chief Yossi Cohen at 14%, with Smotrich trailing third at 11%

Otzma Yehudit party leader National Security Itamar Ben Gvir leads a faction meeting at the Knesset in Jerusalem, on June 10, 2024. (Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)
Otzma Yehudit party leader National Security Itamar Ben Gvir leads a faction meeting at the Knesset in Jerusalem, on June 10, 2024. (Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)

National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, leader of the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, is the preferred candidate among voters of current coalition parties to lead the right-wing, pro-Benjamin Netanyahu bloc after the current prime minister is no longer in politics, a new poll found.

The Maariv survey found that 24 percent of respondents prefer Ben Gvir, followed by ex-Mossad chief Yossi Cohen (14%) and Bezalel Smotrich, head of the fellow far-right Religious Zionism party (11%).

Though Netanyahu made Ben Gvir a minister to bring Otzma Yehudit into the coalition, the premier has reportedly shown distrust in him, excluding him from key security meetings and refusing to give him more say over handling the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip than other security cabinet members.

The poll, conducted on July 10-11 by Lazar Research Institute along with Panel4All, also asked a representative sample of 500 Israeli adults (margin of error: 4.4%) who they would vote for if elections were held today, and showed similar results to other recent surveys, with Benny Gantz’s opposition National Unity trebling its current eight Knesset seats to 24, while Netanyahu’s ruling Likud would win 20, down from the 32 it currently holds in parliament. Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehduit, which has six seats in the Knesset today, was predicted to jump to 10 seats in the poll.

Opposition leader Yesh Atid under MK Yair Lapid scored 13 seats, down from the 24 it currently holds.

Hawkish Yisrael Beytenu, whose leader MK Avigdor Liberman refuses to join a government led by Netanyahu despite having served as a minister under him in the past, was predicted to rocket from its current six seats up to 14 seats, which would be its best result in 15 years.

Yisrael Beytenu party chairman MK Avigdor Liberman leads a faction meeting at the Knesset on July 8, 2024 (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, which has seven seats in the Knesset, was predicted to plummet to just four, the minimum needed for entry into the Knesset. Other recent polls have similarly shown the party struggling to beat the threshold.

The Democratic party, recently under new leader Yair Golan from the existing opposition Labor party and Meretz, which is not in the Knesset, was given nine seats.

The remaining seats went to the ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties, which would largely retain their current standings.

The current coalition parties polled as only winning 50 seats, down from their current 64 in the 120-member parliament. However, current opposition parties were predicted to only win a total of 60 seats, with the remaining 10 held by Arab parties who usually don’t join any government.

L-R: Former prime minister Naftali Bennett at a court hearing in Tel Aviv, September 11, 2023. (Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90); New Hope party chief Gideon Sa’ar at the Knesset, Jerusalem, April 1, 2024. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90); Ex-Mossad chief Yossi Cohen at HaKirya base in Tel Aviv, January 16, 2023. (Tomer Neuberg/Flash90).

If a new right-wing party were to be introduced that includes former premier Naftali Bennett, Yisrael Beytenu chief Avigdor Liberman, Yossi Cohen, New Hope chief Gideon Sa’ar, and former minister Ayelet Shaked, it would become the largest party with 27 seats, followed by Likud with 18 and National Unity with 16. Both Yisrael Beytenu and New Hope are opposition parties, while neither Cohen nor Shaked are currently MKs. Bennett’s coalition, which was in power from June 2022 to December 2023, included the Islamist party Ra’am, which the poll gave five seats.

A significant plurality among the public, 34%, believe Bennett should head such a party, with 11% backing Liberman, 9% saying Cohen, 8% Sa’ar and 5% Shaked, the poll found. The other 33% said they don’t know.

Asked who is better fit to be prime minister, Gantz led Netanyahu by five percentage points (43%-38%), while Bennett led Netanyahu by 13 points (48%-35%).

Another poll by conservative Channel 14, considered pro-Netanyahu, found similar results, though it put Netanyahu as the favorite to head the government.

That poll, conducted by Direct Plus, gave Likud 24 seats, only 16 for National Unity, but also 14 seats to Yisrael Beytenu.

Channel 14 gave Yesh Atid 13 seats and the Democratic party 10 seats. Otzma Yehudit polled nine seats, and Religious Zionism a more optimistic six seats.

Opposition head and Yesh Atid leader MK Yair Lapid leads a faction meeting at the Knesset in Jerusalem, on July 8, 2024 (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

The poll gave the current coalition parties 57 seats, opposition parties 53, and the Arab parties 10 seats.

Asked who is best to serve as prime minister, 41% backed Netanyahu and 34% Lapid, while 25% responded that neither is suited for the job.

In a match-up against Gantz, Netanyahu had 39% support with 32% for the National Unity leader, both showing a slide of a few percentage points since a previous survey. A further 28% responded that neither is suitable.

The Channel 14 website did not provide details on when the survey was conducted, how many people it sampled, or the margin of error.

MK Benny Gantz attends a plenum session at the Knesset on June 11, 2024. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

Israel recently went through an unprecedented bout of five elections within four years as repeated votes failed to produce a stable majority government.

There has been increasing talk of fresh elections amid cabinet members gripping over the management of the war in Gaza and coalition divides on the drafting of the ultra-Orthodox community into the army, both issues that are threatening to collapse the government.

In addition, there is growing dissatisfaction among many in the public at efforts to reach a ceasefire deal and the return of Israeli hostages held in Gaza who were abducted during the devastating October 7 assault by Hamas that sparked the war.

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