Merz faces test in 2 German state elections; eyes on far-right AfD, far-left Berlin candidate

BERLIN — Polling stations opened Sunday in two German state elections in which the far-right AfD party is expected to make further gains that could determine whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz can hold on to power and push ahead with reforms in Europe’s biggest economy.

The state elections are taking place in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a largely rural region in the formerly communist and less prosperous east, and in the capital, Berlin.

The rise of AfD, which criticizes the country’s culture of Holocaust remembrance and has had politicians allegedly use Nazi gestures and slogans, has alarmed Jews in Germany. German Jewish leaders have also expressed concern about Elif Eralp, a far-left mayoral candidate in Berlin.

The vote comes two weeks after Alternative for Germany, or AfD, finished just short of a majority in the small eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, and has its best chance yet of forming the country’s first far-right regional government since World War II.

Regional elections would not usually draw much interest outside Germany, but AfD’s success in Saxony-Anhalt, which it sees as the first step towards winning federal elections due in 2029, has sent shock waves through Europe.

In just over a decade, the party, which wants to take tough action to deport foreigners with no right to stay in Germany, restore energy ties with Russia and quit the euro, has transformed itself from a fringe euroskeptic movement to the country’s most popular party.

Opinion polls indicate it is unlikely to repeat its victory in Saxony-Anhalt in either of Sunday’s votes. But they are both expected to underscore the huge advances it has made in recent years and raise fresh questions over the so-called “firewall” strategy, under which the other main parties refuse to enter coalition agreements with it.

Merz’s authority was severely damaged by his party’s stinging defeat in the September 6 election by AfD — a result that shocked many Germans who had believed their country had developed an immunity to nationalism and assertions of racial superiority after confronting the horrors of its Nazi past through education and laws to outlaw persecution.

AfD is expected to make significant gains in Sunday’s elections as well, but has no realistic path to power in Berlin and faces a much stronger challenge from Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania’s center-left governor than it did from Merz’s party in Saxony-Anhalt.

Prospects for Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union are bleaker. It could lose the mayor’s office in Berlin to Eralp. If things go very badly, it could fail for the first time to win seats in a state legislature anywhere by falling below 5% of the vote in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where it was already weak.

In Berlin, a poll showed the far-left Left Party moving ahead of the CDU, threatening the conservative hold on the mayor’s office in a campaign that has focused heavily on housing affordability. Even in liberal Berlin, however, the AfD has made strong gains, moving into third place.

Merz, 70, became Germany’s leader 16 months ago with promises to turn around an economy that has barely grown in years, but has failed to lift a sullen national mood and has himself become deeply unpopular.

The strong showing of AfD in the Saxony-Anhalt election has further weakened the chancellor’s standing on the national level as well, and in the past two weeks there have been calls even from within his own party to replace him as chancellor.

For the moment at least, senior figures in the CDU have rallied behind him, aware that replacing the chancellor, which would in any case be difficult on constitutional grounds, would leave any successor facing the same deep economic problems.

But disillusionment with his government has hung over the campaigns in both Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, where voters have focused on issues including soaring energy and housing costs.

Apparently anticipating a tough post-election period, Merz abandoned a planned trip to New York next week to attend the UN General Assembly. Despite the strong headwinds, he has repeatedly said that he’s determined to stay on and finish his term as chancellor.