In warning, Qatar and Egypt tell US hostage talks complicated by killing of Sinwar
Washington frames Hamas leader’s death as opportunity for breakthrough since he was main ceasefire obstacle, but Arab mediators say there’s no central decision maker with him gone
Jacob Magid is The Times of Israel's US bureau chief
WASHINGTON — Qatari and Egyptian mediators have warned the US over the past week that Israel’s killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar complicates efforts to broker a ceasefire and hostage release agreement between Israel and the terror group, two US officials and one Arab diplomat told The Times of Israel.
The Biden administration has sought to frame the IDF’s October 16 killing of Sinwar as an opportunity for a breakthrough in the hostage negotiations, arguing that the Hamas leader was the main obstacle to a deal.
But Qatar and Egypt argued that Sinwar’s death creates a leadership vacuum in Hamas that the terror group will have a hard time filling, the three officials said, noting that the Arab mediators’ concerns were passed along to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his visit to the region last week.
Qatari and Egyptian mediators noted that Sinwar had managed to maintain the allegiance of all factions in Gaza, including terror groups like Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which is holding some of the remaining 101 hostages, the officials said.
Hamas is now run by a council of several senior members who are expected to appoint a leader in the near future, but the Arab mediators warned the US that Sinwar’s successor likely won’t be as successful in maintaining a centralized authority in Gaza, raising logistical obstacles to implementing a hostage deal, the officials said.
The US has responded to the concern from Arab mediators by arguing that talks had been at a standstill for over two months because of Sinwar, and his removal from the scene couldn’t possibly make things worse, said one of the US officials.
Qatar and Egypt have been less convinced by this argument, maintaining that the US has downplayed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s culpability for the impasse and claiming that a deal would have been possible over the summer had the premier not added new conditions demanding that Israel maintain a military presence in the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors, the Arab diplomat said.
Hamas in early July had withdrawn its key demand for an upfront Israeli commitment to permanently end the war, which Egypt and Qatar believed should have been enough to secure a deal before Netanyahu updated Israel’s proposal that Hamas went on to reject.
The Arab diplomat said that the Biden administration is gradually understanding the logistical complications posed by Sinwar’s departure.
State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said during a Monday briefing that the US is still waiting to see whether Hamas is prepared to credibly engage in hostage negotiations.
“At some point, they will go through a process to select a new leader, and I think the results over the next few weeks will determine whether there has been a change in their posture,” he said.
Miller noted that Israel has achieved a number of its war aims, namely the significant degradation of Hamas’s military capabilities and the killing of its top leaders, appearing to express hope that Jerusalem would be more willing to agree to a deal to end the war.
But Netanyahu indicated Monday that he was still not prepared to accept a permanent ceasefire in exchange for the hostages.
“Hamas is making demands that we can’t agree to [such as] ending the war,” he said in recorded comments from a Likud faction meeting that were quickly leaked to the press.
Netanyahu offered his support for a temporary ceasefire, while claiming that an Egyptian proposal published in the media for such a deal did not actually exist. The basis for Netanyahu’s assertion was unclear, given that it was announced by Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi himself in a press conference.
Regardless, he injected further pessimism into the discussion, telling Likud faction members, “It’s not clear if there will be any new opportunities due to the killing of Sinwar. At the moment, all those who want to succeed Sinwar will be more Sinwar than Sinwar.”
An Israeli official involved in the hostage negotiations expressed frustration with Netanyahu’s comments, saying the premier was well aware that they would be leaked to the press and provide “another excuse” for Sinwar’s successor to take a more combative approach to negotiations.
Moreover, Netanyahu has refrained from broadening the mandate of Israel’s hostage negotiating team, which the Israeli official said would have increased the chances for a deal.
The premier has preferred a more hardline approach, providing his negotiating team with very limited flexibility in the talks, the Israeli official lamented.
The Times of Israel Community.