Israeli experts warn that extreme climate events suggest dawn of ‘uncharted waters’
Former head of Tel Aviv University Environmental Studies School: ‘Something strange has been happening over the past few months, and it’s scary’
Sue Surkes is The Times of Israel's environment reporter
Israeli scientists say that the extreme climate events pummeling large swaths of the world this year suggest that the globe is entering “uncharted waters.”
“Something strange has been happening over the past few months,” said Prof. Colin Price, the former head of Tel Aviv University’s Porter School of Environmental Studies. “It’s scary.”
Asked why Israel seemed to have escaped the devastating heatwaves that have baked Italy, Spain and Greece in recent weeks, Price said, “I think we’ve just been lucky that the heatwave is a little to the north of us.”
“It’s hot here, but not unusually hot,” he went on. “Next time, it may be here and not in Greece or Spain. It’s hard to predict the weather more than a week or so in advance. These events will be more frequent and intense in the future, but where they’re going to hit is difficult to say. ”
Price noted that high ocean temperatures, which affect air temperatures, were “already off the charts.”
Scientists have particularly underestimated warming in the North Atlantic, recent reports show. Exceptional heat has been recorded, for example, off the coasts of the United Kingdom and Ireland, sparking fears for marine life.
Antarctic sea ice had been far sparser than climate models predicted, Price added.
Last month saw records broken for global average temperatures in June.
Price predicted that global average temperatures for July would also break records.
In Israel, according to the Israel Meteorological Service, conditions — while hot and humid — have not been “irregular,” although the country could be on course for a record-breaking duration of sizzling weather.
Last week, maximum temperatures in the country reached 43°C to 45°C (109°F to 113°F) and even 46°C (115°F) in the Jordan Valley in eastern Israel and the Arava Desert in the south. The coastal plain and the lowlands saw temperatures of 35°C to 37°C (95°F to 98.6°F), with 38°C to 40°C (100°F to 104°F) recorded in the northern Negev and 34°C to 36 °C (93°F to 96.8°F ) in the mountains.
Temperatures near the coast were lower, reaching 31°C to 32°C (88°F to 90°F), but were nevertheless challenging because of 70% to 75% humidity levels at noon.
Periods of a week or more with similar temperatures occurred every few years, said Dr. Amos Porat, director of Climate Services at the Israel Meteorological Service. While more common over the past 20 years, they had also occurred in the more distant past.
However, he added, with heavy heat expected to continue for up to another week, and possibly more, Israel could be heading for an unusually long bake.
Prof. Hadas Saaroni, an expert on climatology and climate change at Tel Aviv University’s Geography and Human Environment Department, agreed that climate-related events were entering “uncharted territory.”
A heatwave in the Italian city of Milan ended Saturday, for example, with an intense hailstorm accompanied by a tornado, which was rare, she said.
This is a lot of hail which caused flooding as well from the heavy rains as severe weather hit Italy. Via: Tornado in Italia on FB
Posted by The Watchmen's Earth and Space connection on Friday, July 21, 2023
“June was very odd in Israel,” Saaroni went on. From the end of May into June, there were three hot, easterly windstorms, known as sharav cyclones — a phenomenon usually associated with spring.
“Not only was that odd, but those incidents were accompanied by clouds, humidity from the tropics, and tropical rain, which is very not typical of June. There were also cold days. Then June ended hotter than usual,” she said.
Scientists expect that the effects of global warming — driven by humanity’s continuing burning of fossil fuels — will be exacerbated by the natural El Nino phenomenon, which has begun and will last one to three years.
El Nino warms the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, pushing warmer air into the atmosphere and impacting weather throughout the world.
Saaroni recalled that from the mid-1960s to the mid-1990s, there was a positive correlation between El Nino years and rainy years in Israel, but after that, the connection disappeared.
