Poll shows small post war popularity bump for Netanyahu and Likud, but no majority for his coalition

Left to right: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate, July 26, 2024. (GPO); Opposition Leader Yair Lapid at the Knesset, Jerusalem, July 22, 2024. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90); head of the National Unity party Benny Gantz at a press conference at the Knesset on July 24, 2024. (Chaim Goldberg/Flash90); former prime minister Naftali Bennett speaks at the annual Cyber Week, at Tel Aviv University, June 25, 2024. (Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90)
Left to right: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate, July 26, 2024. (GPO); Opposition Leader Yair Lapid at the Knesset, Jerusalem, July 22, 2024. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90); head of the National Unity party Benny Gantz at a press conference at the Knesset on July 24, 2024. (Chaim Goldberg/Flash90); former prime minister Naftali Bennett speaks at the annual Cyber Week, at Tel Aviv University, June 25, 2024. (Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90)

A poll taken after a ceasefire is agreed between Israel and Iran, ending 12 days of war that are largely viewed as a resounding success for Israel, sees Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party win a small bump in popularity, but not enough for his current coalition to come close to forming a majority.

The poll finds that the gain by Netanyahu’s Likud largely comes at the expense of his current coalition partners, and shows that the current pro-Netanyahu coalition bloc would win only 49 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. The opposition parties would win 61, while the Arab parties, who have largely stayed out of coalitions, have 10.

Channel 12 quotes sources close to Netanyahu as being disappointed with the results, saying he expected a larger bump due to the war. The poll results could scupper thoughts of calling a snap election, the report says.

The poll taken by Channel 12 gives Netanyahu’s Likud 26 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, up four from pre-war polls.

Former prime minister Naftali Bennett’s nascent party would win 24 seats, and the left-wing The Democrats would take 12.

Current opposition leader Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, the Sephardic ultra-Orthodox Shas and hawkish Yisrael Beytenu would all win nine seats.

The Ashkenazi Haredi party United Torah Judaism would win eight seats, Benny Gantz’s National Unity would win seven, while the far-right Otzma Yehudit would win six.

The poll finds that the two Arab parties Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am would each win five.

Asked who they would prefer for prime minister, the public chooses Netanyahu over Bennett for the first time this year with 38% saying Netanyahu and 35% picking Bennett. A further 21% said neither of them were suitable and 6% did not know.

Netanyahu also led by greater margins over other opposition leaders.

Israel does not choose the prime minister by direct election, but by which parties can put together a coalition.

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