Putin eyes role as Israel-Iran peacemaker to boost wilted Mideast influence
Analyst says Moscow does not want regime change in Tehran after having lost its ally Assad in Syria, and its close ties with Islamic Republic don’t make it a neutral mediator
Vladimir Putin is eyeing the conflict between Israel and Iran as an opportunity to thrust himself to the forefront of the international stage, more than three years into his invasion of Ukraine.
The Russian president has pitched himself as a possible mediator — though Moscow’s closeness to Iran and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raise doubts about what kind of role he can play, experts say.
The assault on Ukraine and the war against Hamas in Gaza have strained Moscow’s relatively good relations with Israel, home to a large Russian expat community.
At the same time, Russia has deepened military ties with Iran.
But while Moscow was quick to condemn Israel’s strikes on Iran last Friday, Putin also wasted little time phoning both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to offer his services as a peacemaker.
“By positioning itself as an indispensable intermediary, Moscow aims to reassert diplomatic relevance despite its pariah status in Europe,” said Nicole Grajewski, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
It also wants to protect its ally Tehran, which is sworn to Israel’s destruction and is now facing a potentially existential military clash.
“Russia does not want to see regime change in Iran, especially if it results in a pro-Western government,” she added.
Moscow and Tehran in January inked a far-ranging strategic partnership agreement to broaden military ties, and Kyiv and its allies have long accused Iran of supplying Russia with drones and short-range missiles.
‘Not objective’
Russia is also seeking to regain influence in the Middle East following the fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
“The regime change in Syria caused it to lose ground,” said Tatiana Kastoueva-Jean of the French Institute of International Relations.
Russia has previously used the region to boost its international standing.
After being hit with sanctions for the annexation of Crimea, Russia “emerged from international isolation” by “becoming indispensable in the region,” Kastoueva-Jean said.
Specifically, it did so by backing Assad in the Syrian civil war and supporting the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, which US President Donald Trump abandoned in 2018 in favor of sanctions to pressure Tehran into signing a tighter deal.
However, Moscow’s much closer alliance with Tehran this time around could disqualify it from playing the role of trusted mediator.
“Since Russia is seen as Iran’s ally, and they have a strategic partnership agreement, such mediation would not inspire confidence in Europe. Nor in Israel,” Russian political analyst Konstantin Kalachev told AFP.
“A mediator should not sympathize with one side,” he added.
French President Emmanuel Macron is among those to have pushed back at the idea of Putin as a moderator.
“I do not believe that Russia, which is now engaged in a high-intensity conflict and has decided not to respect the UN Charter for several years now, can be a mediator,” he said over the weekend.
And asked if it had received a response to its overtures, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday that Moscow saw “a reluctance, on the part of Israel, to resort to any mediation services or to embark on a peaceful path toward a settlement.”
‘Woo Trump’
One person who did not seem concerned about a possible role for Russia is Trump, who said he was “open” to Putin playing middleman.
The US president is pushing his own rapprochement with Putin in a complete overhaul of the West’s attempts to isolate and punish the Russian strongman for his Ukraine offensive.
Putin may welcome the opportunity to shift the conversation with the White House, just as Trump grows increasingly frustrated over Russia’s ongoing attacks on Ukraine and failure to strike a peace deal.
“Russia is trying to woo Trump on issues that go beyond Ukraine,” said Kastoueva-Jean.
Even before Israel launched its wave of surprise strikes on Iran’s nuclear and missile program last Friday, Putin was offering to help secure a deal between Iran and the United States over Tehran’s nuclear program.
But for many, the idea of Putin playing peacemaker, more than three years into his invasion of Ukraine, is a worrying prospect.
“It would legitimize Russia as an indispensable great power at a time when it is waging the biggest war of aggression on European soil since World War II,” said Anna Borshchevskaya, an analyst at The Washington Institute.
The Times of Israel Community.