Analysis

Still trying to force Hamas into deal, IDF moves to drastically expand Gaza buffer zones

Mass evacuation orders in Rafah are first act in multi-week operation, as Israel gives terror group last chance to free 11 living hostages and gain truce before IDF retakes Strip

Lazar Berman

Lazar Berman is The Times of Israel's diplomatic reporter

IDF troops operate in the Gaza Strip, in a handout photo issued by the military on March 23, 2025. (Israel Defense Forces)
IDF troops operate in the Gaza Strip, in a handout photo issued by the military on March 23, 2025. (Israel Defense Forces)

The renewed ground operation in Gaza is entering its next stage.

On Monday, the Israel Defense Forces issued evacuation orders for the entire Rafah area in the southern Gaza Strip, telling residents that the military is “returning to fight with great force to eliminate the capabilities of terror organizations in these areas.”

It’s no idle threat.

The army is initiating a multi-week operation that will see massive airstrikes on evacuated areas before IDF forces push further into Gaza from the buffer zones it currently holds, expanding them and reducing the territory held by Hamas and populated by civilians, The Times of Israel has learned. The major pushes will come simultaneously from the north and south of the Strip.

The evacuation area covers a large swath of land between Rafah and Khan Younis, where the IDF has so far not operated with ground forces.

The operation will result in a significant amount of territory along Gaza’s borders falling into Israeli hands.

It will not require the call-up of additional reserves, though reservists will take part in the campaign. Elements from four divisions will push into Gaza if Hamas does not give in before then.

No aid will be going in, at least not in the early stages of the military push into Gaza.

For four weeks, Israel has shut off all sources of food, fuel, medicine, and other supplies for the Gaza Strip’s population of more than 2 million Palestinians, citing Hamas’s refusal to extend the first phase of the ceasefire deal and release more hostages. Israeli officials insist they allowed enough aid in during the two-month ceasefire to last Gaza for several months, while accusing Hamas of hoarding supplies for itself.

Palestinians leaving Rafah following new Israeli evacuation orders, in the southern Gaza Strip, on March 31, 2025. (Anadolu via Reuters Connect)

The United Nations warned this week that Gaza’s bakeries would run out of flour for bread within a week, saying that agencies have cut food distributions to families in half, markets are empty of most vegetables, and many aid workers cannot move around because of Israeli strikes targeting terror sites.

The growing campaign is still not a return to full-blown ground maneuver, though Israel is expecting Hamas to carry out attacks on troops in some areas. The “maximum pressure” operation is meant as a last effort to push Hamas to accept Israel’s demands for a hostage deal, The Times of Israel has learned.

The security cabinet on Saturday night voted to increase pressure on Hamas, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at the weekly cabinet meeting, March 30, 2025 (screenshot/GPO)

Israel’s demands haven’t changed much from what it calls the “Witkoff proposal,” after US President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy.

It insists that Hamas release 11 living hostages on the first day of a 40-day ceasefire. One of the hostages is to be US citizen Edan Alexander, as Hamas has indicated to the Americans that it is ready to free him as a goodwill gesture.

On the fifth day of the ceasefire, Hamas will have to give Israel information on all the remaining hostages, and lay out exactly who is alive.

On day 10, Hamas will be required to turn over half of the slain hostages it still holds.

Protesters rally for a hostage deal outside the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem on March 25, 2025. (Charlie Summers/Times of Israel)

Israel is willing to engage in talks on ending the war, but will insist on achieving its war aims — the disarming of Hamas and other Gaza terror groups, the exile of Hamas leaders, and a new governing structure that does not include Hamas.

The IDF will also hold on to a buffer zone to protect border communities.

However, Israel has yet to receive a response from Hamas after it sent its conditions to the mediators on Saturday, the Prime Minister’s Office has told The Times of Israel.

Posters of Israelis held hostage by Hamas terrorists in Gaza are seen at the Sarona Market in Tel Aviv, March 26, 2025. (Miriam Alster/Flash90)

If Hamas continues to dig in its heels and refuses to meet Israel’s demands, the IDF will eventually issue emergency orders for large numbers of reservists to retake the Gaza Strip and defeat Hamas in the field.

Fifty-nine hostages remain in Gaza, 24 of whom are still believed to be alive. The 35 confirmed dead include a soldier killed fighting in the 2014 Gaza war.

Israel reached a ceasefire and hostage release deal with Hamas in January, but after the deal’s first phase expired, Israel halted the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza on March 2 and resumed military activity in Gaza on March 18.

Since resuming operations in the Gaza Strip on March 18, the IDF has said it is targeting senior Hamas political officials and mid-level military commanders, along with the terror group’s infrastructure, including weapon depots and rocket launchers. Members of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other terror groups have also been targeted.

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