Shortly after its jet was downed Tuesday, Syria issued a statement blaming Israel. Damascus was also quick to explain that its plane was on a mission as part of its “offensive against terrorists” in the Yarmouk Basin.
Though it’s difficult to say for certain he did not enter Israeli airspace intentionally, a view of the Syrian conflict from above would seem to suggest pilot Col. Amran Mara’e simply strayed over Israeli airspace, making him the latest victim of spillover violence from the quickly fading Syrian civil war.
There is little to suggest the Syrian air force had any intention of striking Israeli targets; rather, the pilot was probably busy bombing rebel targets adjacent to the Syria-Jordan-Israel border triangle as part of a wide Syrian and Russian offensive.
This enclave, adjacent the southern Golan Heights, is under control of a jihadist group linked to the Islamic State. The affiliate is one of the last IS-linked groups controlling territory in Syria, and one of the last holdouts of any rebel group, with Bashar Assad’s forces now in control of some 70% of Syrian territory.
View of the trail left in the sky by a Patriot missile that was fired to intercept a Syrian jet entering Israel from Syria, as seen in the northern Israeli city of Safed, on July 24, 2018. (David Cohen/Flash90)
In recent weeks, regime forces have managed to purge southern Syria — most notably in the provinces of Daara and Quneitra — of rebel strongholds.
Get The Times of Israel's Daily Edition
by email and never miss our top stories
By signing up, you agree to the
terms
The regime’s strategy in these areas — bombing rebel targets and only afterwards extending offers for voluntary evacuation — is now playing out in this triangular region.
Syrian soldiers flashing the victory sign as they sit on their military vehicle at Naseeb border crossing with Jordan, in the southern province of Daraa, Syria, July 7, 2018. (SANA via AP)
On Tuesday morning, the Syrians tried to persuade the rebels in the triangle to follow thousands of their counterparts in Quneitra, who have agreed to leave for rebel-held Idlib in recent days.
However, given the armed rebels’ refusal to lay down their arms, the regime walked back the offer and returned to its heavy bombardment of the area, including airstrikes.
A picture taken on July 23, 2018 from the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights shows a warplane dropping a payload in the southwestern Syrian province of Daraa during a Syrian-government-led offensive in the area. (AFP /JALAA MAREY)
The consequence was evident in the launch of two SS-21 rockets near the Israeli border (triggering rocket sirens in Israel and the firing of two interceptor missiles) on Monday, and the downing of the Syrian jet on Tuesday.
If the pattern in other areas is any guide, soon enough this triangle region, too, will also be under Syrian control and quiet may return to Israel’s Golan frontier.
But with quiet come fears Iranian-backed forces may return as well.
On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and the Russian military chief of staff Gen. Valery Vasilyevich Gerasimov spoke to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the future of Syria, and offered to keep Iranian troops and Iran-backed fighters in Syria at least 100 kilometers from Israel’s northern border.
Syrian government forces’ soldiers wave their national flags after taking back the city of Quneitra from the rebels, on July 19, 2018. (AFP PHOTO / Youssef KARWASHAN)
Currently, there are about 20,000 Iranian soldiers and Iran-backed militants (including Hezbollah) fighting in Syria, and Tehran is heavily invested in establishing military bases for them throughout the country.
Moscow may able to distance them from the border, and could possibly even oust them from Syria completely. The critical question is whether Russia wants to do so.
Responsibly covering this tumultuous time
As The Times of Israel’s political correspondent, I spend my days in the Knesset trenches, speaking with politicians and advisers to understand their plans, goals and motivations.
I'm proud of our coverage of this government's plans to overhaul the judiciary, including the political and social discontent that underpins the proposed changes and the intense public backlash against the shakeup.
Your support through The Times of Israel Community helps us continue to keep readers across the world properly informed during this tumultuous time. Have you appreciated our coverage in past months? If so, please join the ToI Community today.
~ Carrie Keller-Lynn, Political Correspondent
Yes, I'll join
Yes, I'll join
Already a member? Sign in to stop seeing this
You're a dedicated reader
We’re really pleased that you’ve read X Times of Israel articles in the past month.
That’s why we started the Times of Israel eleven years ago - to provide discerning readers like you with must-read coverage of Israel and the Jewish world.
So now we have a request. Unlike other news outlets, we haven’t put up a paywall. But as the journalism we do is costly, we invite readers for whom The Times of Israel has become important to help support our work by joining The Times of Israel Community.
For as little as $6 a month you can help support our quality journalism while enjoying The Times of Israel AD-FREE, as well as accessing exclusive content available only to Times of Israel Community members.
Thank you,
David Horovitz, Founding Editor of The Times of Israel
Join Our Community
Join Our Community
Already a member? Sign in to stop seeing this