Israel to reportedly try creating Hamas-free ‘bubble’ zones in northern Gaza

An Israeli military pilot to create “humanitarian enclaves” for Gazan civilians unaffiliated with Hamas is reportedly set to be rolled out in two northern Gaza cities, though some officials are skeptical the plan will point the way to a new reality in the battered enclave.

The plan to carve out Hamas-free “bubbles,” where local Palestinians would slowly take over aid distribution responsibilities, will initially be implemented in Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahia, the Financial Times reported on Monday.

The scheme, which would dovetail with a post-war plan to hand aspects of control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority and moderate Arab states, has reportedly been met with skepticism by anonymous former officials and others familiar with the plans.

Under the pilot, which will also be implemented in the northwestern Beit Lahia neighborhood of Atatra, Israeli forces would retain security duties for the time being, while Palestinians would gradually take over civil governance, according to the report, which cited six people with knowledge of the plan.

If the model is successful in the north, Israel would begin creating more enclaves in the south, laying a foundation for a replacement for Hamas governing the Strip.

Aid will enter from the Western Erez crossing created during the ongoing war against Hamas.

The Prime Minister’s Office and the IDF did not respond to requests for comment from The Times of Israel.

Some of those familiar with the plan downplayed its chances of success to the Financial Times, telling the outlet that Israel “already tried” a similar method in various parts of central and northern Gaza with local Palestinian clans.

They said that Israel has been working to identify potential non-Hamas local leadership since November, but has been unsuccessful.

“They were all either beaten up or killed by Hamas,” a former Israeli official familiar with postwar planning was quoted saying.

In January and February, Israeli defense officials proposed using local clans as a stopgap solution for aid distribution, after a series of deadly incidents involving convoys rushed by mobs of hungry and desperate Palestinians or taken over by armed Hamas members. It is unclear to what extent the idea was ever implemented.

At the time, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other officials laid out a series of plans to hand varying levels of administrative control of some areas in Gaza to local clans free of Hamas influence after the war ended, though experts doubted its viability at the time.

The issue has gained increased urgency in recent weeks as Israel nears the end of its nine-month offensive in Gaza aimed at eliminating Hamas following the devastating October 7 onslaught of southern Israel.

Israel is “progressing toward the end of the phase of eliminating Hamas’s terror army,” Netanyahu said Monday.

The former official who spoke to the Financial Times noted the humanitarian enclaves are one part of a much larger three-tier postwar plan that Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and the Israeli security establishment have been pushing.

That plan aims to involve a broad international coalition, including the Palestinian Authority and moderate Arab states, which would diplomatically and financially take charge of postwar Gaza. Members of that coalition would effectively govern the humanitarian bubbles.

Other individuals familiar with the discussions told the Financial Times that there are plans to train former PA personnel in Jordan and the West Bank to take over security responsibilities in the Hamas-free pockets. PA intelligence chief Mahed Faraj has already identified several thousand potential recruits, said the paper, which said the force would be trained under US Lt. Gen. Michael Fenzel.

Those schemes are opposed by members of Netanyahu’s circle who are resistant to any postwar plan that involve the PA, officials said.

On Tuesday, National Security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said the plan for the “day after” Hamas would start to be implemented in northern Gaza in the coming days.

He said that the IDF plan has “been sharpened” in recent weeks, and that “we will see a practical expression of this plan” shortly.

Israel invaded northern Gaza in late October, telling Palestinians there to flee south, and has largely prevented Palestinians from returning to the north of the enclave as it seeks to keep Hamas from regrouping in areas it already conquered.

Aid deliveries in Gaza, and particularly to those who remained in the north of the Strip, have been a constant challenge, leading to what human rights figures say are dire conditions in the enclave. Doug Strope, with the US Agency for International Development, said last week that securing the aid deliveries was a major issue, with truck drivers getting caught in crossfire or having their cargo seized by marauding groups.

Scenes of desperate people randomly grabbing what they can off the trucks and the reported “gang-like activity,” in which looting has become “more organized and systemic,” are undermining aid efforts, he said.

On Saturday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel and the US were pushing competing visions for post-Hamas Gaza, and that planning was being held up by Netanyahu’s refusal to seriously consider the issue until the offensive against Hamas ends.

Israel Ziv, a retired major general involved in creating the bubble plan, told the Journal that Palestinians who denounce Hamas would be given the right to live in one of the enclaves and reconstruct homes there.

Ziv added that over time the PA could be brought in to administer the area, and Hamas could also take part in administration if it releases the hostages it currently holds and disarms its military wing. However, Netanyahu has largely rejected allowing the PA to administer the Strip, and has vowed the total annihilation of Hamas.

A separate plan, envisioned by the right-wing Misgav think tank, calls for a long-term Israeli military occupation of Gaza, at least until three-quarters of the military wings of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad have been eliminated. According to the report, the IDF estimates it has killed or captured about half of Hamas’s fighting force. Only once that objective is accomplished would the administration of the enclave by a separate force be feasible, the think tank said.

That proposal, which was submitted to Netanyahu by Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli, would see northern Gaza remaining without reconstruction. Its residents, who have mostly evacuated to the southern part of the Strip, would not be allowed to return, at least until Hamas’s tunnel network is destroyed.

While the Misgav plan also calls for humanitarian areas in which aid could be distributed, the proposal does not endorse giving locals administrative responsibilities.

The plan’s creators reportedly believe the military occupation of Gaza will last between one and five years.

The Wall Street Journal presented a third plan, spearheaded by an unnamed former head of Israeli intelligence, which calls for Israel to collaborate with the US and Arab countries to create a new Palestinian governing body that would work with Israel to fight terrorism. As a compromise between Arab states’ demand that their participation in a day-after plan be conditioned upon an Israeli commitment to a Palestinian state and Netanyahu’s refusal to make such a commitment, the plan calls for discussions on that issue to begin five years after the war.

A fourth plan, devised by the Washington-based Wilson Center, calls for a US-led international police force to administer Gaza without requiring Israel to commit to achieving Palestinian statehood. Eventually, the police force would hand over administrative duties to an undefined Palestinian body.

Robert Silverman, a former US diplomat in Iraq who co-authored that plan, said that despite amending the proposal to fit Israeli demands, it was halted at the Prime Minister’s Office.

“[Netanyahu] believes we finish the war first and then plan the postwar,” Silverman told The Wall Street Journal. “All the people who have done this before say that’s a huge mistake.”

A fifth plan written by Israeli academics, and reportedly seen by Netanyahu, seeks to draw on historical precedents of rebuilding war zones, like post-World War II Germany and Japan, as well as Iraq and Afghanistan following the US occupation there.

The document seen by The Wall Street Journal acknowledges the complexities in deradicalizing the education system in Gaza and finding new leadership, and therefore called for the proposal to be implemented as soon as possible.