Survey: Netanyahu would be heavily defeated were elections held today; Gantz soars

Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu addresses supporters at the party's campaign headquarters in Jerusalem early on November 2, 2022, with his wife Sara at his side, as votes are counted in the general elections. (AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov)
Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu addresses supporters at the party's campaign headquarters in Jerusalem early on November 2, 2022, with his wife Sara at his side, as votes are counted in the general elections. (AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov)

A Channel 12 survey finds that the Benjamin Netanyahu-led coalition that won 64 seats in last November’s elections would crash to just 45 seats in the 120-strong Knesset were elections held today. The anti-Netanyahu, so-called “change” parties would soar to 70 seats, with the Hadash-Taal alliance winning the other five.

Benny Gantz’s National Unity party would win 36 seats, the survey found, more than double the 17 for Netanyahu’s Likud.

The channel acknowledged that it was unusual to take an election survey during a war. At the same time, it noted that usually in wars, prime ministers got a popularity boost, while this survey showed the opposite.

The survey gives the parties’ seats as follows (current seats in parentheses): Gantz’s National Unity Party 36 seats (12); Netanyahu’s Likud 17 (32); Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid 15 (24); Shas 10 (11); Yisrael Beytenu 9 (6); United Torah Judaism 7 (7); Otzmah Yehudit 7 (14 as part of an alliance with Religious Zionism); Hadash-Taal 5 (5); Meretz 5 (0); Ra’am 5 (5); and Religious Zionism 4. (Labor, which won 4 seats last November, was predicted to win no seats.)

The survey was conducted yesterday among 502 respondents by pollster Mano Geva and Midgam, and had a 4.4% margin of error.

Were former prime minister Naftali Bennett to return to politics as the head of a party, National Unity would win 25 seats; Likud 17; Bennett 17 and Yesh Atid 14, the survey found.

Asked who is their favored prime minister, respondents preferred Gantz to Netanyahu by 41-25%. Asked to choose between Netanyahu and Lapid, respondents were split, with each receiving 29%.

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