Nearly 1 in 4 Israelis will be ultra-Orthodox by 2050, study says

National Economic Council says Haredi Jews will make up 3.8 million of projected 16 million Israelis in 30 years, thanks to community’s high birth rates

JTA — Nearly one quarter of Israel’s population will be ultra-Orthodox by the year 2050, according to projections by Israel’s National Economic Council.

Israel’s current population of 9.2 million is expected to grow by 70 percent to nearly 16 million by 2050. Of those 16 million, about a quarter, or 3.8 million, are projected by Israel’s National Economic Council to be ultra-Orthodox.

Ultra-Orthodox Jews will account for close to a third of Israel’s Jewish population.

The Arab population will climb to 3.24 million, and continue to account for roughly 20% of the total population.

The new population figures point to a future in which Israel’s Jewish population continues to make up about 80% of the national population but in which that Jewish population skews far more heavily ultra-Orthodox than before.

Currently, Israel’s ultra-Orthodox population makes up 12.6% of the population. By 2050, that figure will rise to 24% of the total population, the council said.

Most of that growth will result from the ultra-Orthodox community’s birth rate of 6.7 children per woman, far higher than non-ultra-Orthodox Jewish families. Across all sectors of the population, Israelis ages 19 and younger will make up over a third of the population.

Most of Israel’s ultra-Orthodox Jews are expected to remain concentrated in Jerusalem and its surrounding area, as well as in the city of Beit Shemesh. But the ultra-Orthodox population is also projected to grow in Israel’s south, where a new ultra-Orthodox city is being planned, as well as to a smaller degree in the north.

Tel Aviv and its surrounding cities and suburbs will continue to be the most highly populated area of the country. That area will also see a major increase in the number of elderly people, with the number of people over the age of 65 approximately doubling.

The country’s population growth across all sectors is projected to place greater demands on the country’s housing stock, already considered to be insufficient for the current population’s needs, as well as transportation systems and education system.

The study, an update of one released in 2017, was published in August, and was reported on by Haaretz this week.

Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.