New poll puts Labor in lead with 23 mandates

A poll published by the Knesset Channel on Monday afternoon shows Labor leading Likud by two seats, and puts the new party established by Eli Yishai after he left Shas above the 3.25% electoral threshold, taking approximately half the mandates currently held by Shas.

In the new poll, Labor (now merged with Tzipi Livni’s Hatnua) wins 23 mandates, with Likud coming a close second at 21 seats. Jewish Home comes in third with 16 mandates, four more than it has in the 19th Knesset. (Labor has 15 seats in the outgoing Knesset; Likud and Yisrael Beytenu, running together, won 31 last time.)

Former finance minister Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party, which won 19 seats in the outgoing Knesset, shrinks to 11. Unlike other polls, the survey published Monday found Yesh Atid to be stronger than Moshe Kahlon’s new party Kulanu, at nine seats.

Meretz gets seven seats, one more than it currently holds, and United Torah Judaism maintains its strength, with seven mandates. Yisrael Beytenu falls to seven mandates.

Eli Yishai’s new party, Ha’am Itanu (The People Are With Us), would win four mandates and Shas would win only five, the poll found. Thus Shas and Ha’am Itanu, which presumably target the same electorate, would win nine seats put together, two fewer than Shas’s current strength in parliament.

The communist Hadash party is expected to win five seats, with the United Arab List also expected to win five. Balad is not expected to clear the electoral threshold. The findings for the Arab parties are based on them not running on a joint ticket.

The poll was conducted by Panels Politics, with a 4.8% margin of error.