Exit polls show big win for Germany’s far-right AfD in state election, but government elusive

MAGDEBURG, Germany — The far-right Alternative for Germany party won key regional elections by a landslide with at least 44 percent of the vote in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, exit polls by two public broadcasters found.

The result could bring to power the first far-right state government in Germany’s post-World War II history, but it was too early to tell whether the AfD had enough votes for an absolute majority that would allow it to govern a state alone for the first time.

“We have made history today,” said a jubilant Ulrich Siegmund, the 35-year-old lead candidate of the anti-immigration AfD in Saxony-Anhalt state.

The center-right CDU of Chancellor Friedrich Merz came a distant second, winning around 18.5 percent, according to exit polls by broadcasters ARD and ZDF. The center-left Social Democrats and environmental Greens both cleared the minimum threshold to enter parliament, the ARD poll showed.

Turnout was around 76%, well above levels typically seen in state elections.

Depending on the eventual count, the CDU’s state premier Sven Schulze would hope to still be able to form a new multi-party coalition to block the AfD from power.

But much could depend on whether the far-left populist BSW party, a potential AfD coalition partner, could also clear the threshold. Exit polls showed it just above or just below it.

All major parties have so far maintained a “firewall” of non-cooperation with the Moscow-friendly AfD, whose state branch is categorized as “right-wing extremist” by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency.

A first-ever AfD state government would be a shock for many in Germany, which has been at pains to atone for its dark history of World War II and the Holocaust and so far kept extremist parties at bay.

The specter of a far-right state government drew thousands of the AfD’s opponents to a rally on Saturday in Magdeburg, the regional capital, with banners saying “life is better without Nazis.”

“I’m very worried,” demonstrator Laura Saalfeld told AFP.

“Whatever the results, the atmosphere will change. Far-right sympathizers will show themselves more openly on the streets.”

Smiling face, radical agenda

Siegmund, the AfD’s telegenic top candidate, has ambitions to lead a political revolution from Saxony-Anhalt that would propel the party to national victory in 2029.

On the campaign trail, Siegmund — a former entrepreneur with a sharp undercut hairstyle and a huge social media following — has been mobbed by adoring fans, many wearing T-shirts bearing his likeness.

The party has tapped into a sense of nostalgia for communist East Germany as well as lingering resentment about an enduring wealth gap with the West decades after the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall.

In line with the sometimes defiant sense of local “Ossie pride,” Siegmund has often ridden the iconic local Simson bike, including to the polling booth Sunday in his hometown of Tangermuende.

While Siegmund has been dubbed the friendly face of the AfD, his campaign promises have been radical, including targeting irregular migrants with a “remigration and deportation offensive” from day one.

The party’s anti-“woke” agenda also includes vows to replace LGBTQ pride rainbow flags at public schools with the German standard, and to change history teaching to lessen the emphasis on the Third Reich.

In order to replace migrant workers, the AfD wants to lure back German expatriates, while offering “baby bonuses” for families to reverse the shrinking of the population in the small state of 2.1 million people.

The German Economic Institute has warned the AfD’s immigration policy would be “ruinous” for Saxony-Anhalt, which is highly reliant on foreign-born workers, especially in the health sector.

Others have voiced fears that an AfD-run state security apparatus could leak sensitive information to Russia, which Moscow could use to destabilize Germany.

The Kremlin “makes no secret of the fact that the AfD is the most important instrument for destabilising Germany for (Russian President Vladimir) Putin,” Thuringia state interior minister Georg Maier told the Handelsblatt daily.

The strong AfD win also heaps pressure on Merz, who has vowed to reboot a stagnant economy and restrict irregular immigration, but has seen his party beaten by the AfD in national surveys too.

Political scientist Wolfgang Schroeder of Kassel University said that after an AfD win in Saxony-Anhalt, “Merz’s critics will become even more vocal, and calls for better leadership will become impossible to ignore.”