‘Peace is possible’: Announcing Lebanon truce, US insists this time will be different

US President Joe Biden announced on Tuesday that his administration had succeeded in brokering a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, in what seeks to close a second front that the Iran-backed terror group opened against Israel hours after Hamas’s October 7, 2023, onslaught.

“I applaud the courageous decision made by the leaders of Lebanon and Israel to end the violence. It reminds us that peace is possible,” Biden said in a hopeful speech from the White House Rose Garden in which he announced that the deal would come into effect at 4 a.m. local time Wednesday morning.

Biden’s delivery of the news contrasted starkly with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s, as the premier sought to contend with criticism from much of his political base upset over an agreement that appears to leave Hezbollah able to hobble on, shielded from blows by the IDF that have intensified significantly over the past two months.

“If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to rearm, we will attack,” Netanyahu said sternly.

The deal was authorized by the vast majority of the security cabinet. The premier said it would allow Israel to focus more closely on the Iranian nuclear threat, allow the IDF to rejuvenate its forces, and isolate Hamas in what Jerusalem hopes will boost chances for a hostage deal in Gaza.

Still, it fell short of the “total victory” pledged for months by Netanyahu, with critics, led by mayors of the northern Israel towns most impacted by the Hezbollah conflict, warning that it does not prevent the terror group from rearming as it did after the Second Lebanon War in 2006.

That fighting, too, was brought to a close by an internationally backed agreement. UN Security Council Resolution 1701 was supposed to see Hezbollah disarm and withdraw its forces beyond the Litani River, some 18 miles north of the Lebanon-Israel border known as the Blue Line. The UNIFIL observer force was established in order to ensure 1701’s enforcement, but ultimately, violations were never prosecuted.

The prime minister, in a recorded speech to the nation, acknowledged that a formally designated goal of the war across the northern border, to enable the secure return of some 60,000 Israeli residents forced from their homes by Hezbollah’s attacks, had not yet been achieved, and vowed that “the war will not end” until they can safely return.

Details of the deal: Why this time will be different

The White House — through Biden’s Rose Garden speech, followed by a briefing held by one of his senior aides involved in the negotiations — sought to explain why this time would be different from 2006.

“This is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities,” Biden said emphatically. “What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed to threaten the security of Israel again.”

Over the next 60 days, the Lebanese army and state security forces will deploy and take control of their own territory in southern Lebanon, Biden said, reiterating that Hezbollah will not be allowed to rebuild its terror infrastructure. During this 60-day period, Israel will gradually withdraw its troops from Lebanon.

Israeli troops will hold their positions at the start of the 60-day period commencing the ceasefire, said the senior US official briefing reporters, explaining that Israel’s gradual withdrawal will start only when soldiers from the Lebanese military begin deploying in southern Lebanon, to ensure that no vacuums are created in the interim. “This is a process that cannot happen overnight or in several days.”

The senior US official clarified that this doesn’t mean the withdrawal will only begin after 60 days. “Rather, by the time we reach somewhere in the 50 to 60 days, all Israeli troops will be gone… In the first couple of weeks, you’ll already start seeing some of those [IDF] troops withdraw.”

During the 60-day period, the US official said that the Lebanese military would be authorized to verify that Hezbollah was moving north of the Litani River. There is an agreed-upon map that details the exact lines to which Hezbollah is required to retreat and where specifically the Lebanese army will be deployed.

Lebanese troops will be tasked with patrolling southern Lebanon to ensure that any remaining Hezbollah infrastructure is removed and cannot be rebuilt, the senior US official said.

The ceasefire agreement will also see the US and France join an existing mechanism to monitor the deal’s implementation. Hitherto referred to as the “tripartite mechanism” and consisting of representatives from Israel, Lebanon and the UNIFIL observer force, the panel failed to ensure the upholding of Resolution 1701, which required Hezbollah to disarm and retreat north of the Litani River.

Biden said the US, along with France, is committed to ensuring that the deal is fully implemented while stressing that this will not require any American troops on the ground.

The deal is intended to enable the 60,000 displaced Israeli civilians and roughly 30,000 Lebanese civilians to return to their homes and rebuild their communities on either side of the Blue Line.

Critically, Biden said, “If Hezbollah or anyone else breaks the deal and poses a direct threat to Israel, Israel retains the right to self-defense, consistent with international law — just like any country when facing a terrorist group pledged to that country’s destruction.”

At the same time, Biden said the deal boosts Lebanon’s sovereignty, allowing the country to put itself on a “path toward a future that’s worthy of a significant past.”

Under the new deal, the US will become the chair of the expanded enforcement mechanism, which will also be enhanced by France’s presence, the senior administration official said. The committee, made up of diplomats and military personnel, will be tasked with adjudicating complaints from either side regarding potential ceasefire violations.

The panel will also work to ensure that the Lebanese army is properly trained and equipped to ensure the ceasefire’s implementation, the US official said. While US combat troops will not be on the ground, “there will be [US] military support for the Lebanese Armed Forces,” the official added.

There will be a separate committee called the Military Technical Committee (MTC) made up of additional countries that will provide further financial support, equipment and training to the LAF, the US official said.

Unlike the 2006 ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, when the international community “abandoned the scene” after it was signed, “here we remain committed to being on the ground, day to day, watching what’s happening,” the US official said.

The international community is determined to “learn from the mistakes of the past, when Hezbollah was the only organization” involved in the reconstruction of Lebanon. “It is in our interests… to support economic growth” in Lebanon, said the senior official.

The US official also stressed that Hezbollah is “extremely weak at this moment — both militarily and politically,” and said this presents an opportunity for the Lebanese government to re-establish its sovereignty, particularly by appointing a president — something that Hezbollah blocked for years.

The deal announced today is not “offering Israel a temporary security guarantee, rather a durable ceasefire that [it] can trust,” the senior US official said.

Asked repeatedly to elaborate on the ceasefire’s enforcement mechanism, given reports claiming that the US has provided Israel with guarantees allowing it to immediately strike in Lebanon in the event of alleged Hezbollah violations, the senior US official declined to do so.

Instead, the US official highlighted the now-US-led enforcement committee, which he said will not be a “mailbox” like it was in the years following the Second Lebanon War. Rather, it will operate as a “live messaging service, making sure that whenever there is a view of a violation — specifically a serious violation — it is addressed immediately.”

Hezbollah’s losses

Biden in his Rose Garden speech highlighted how Hezbollah was the party that started the conflict against Israel hours after Hamas’s October 7 terror onslaught.

“Israel did not launch this war. The Lebanese people did not seek that war either,” Biden said, lamenting how Hezbollah’s cross-border attacks have forced the 60,000 Israelis to flee their homes in the north in addition to 30,000 Lebanese people who have evacuated their country’s south as a result of IDF strikes.

He detailed US security assistance for Israel against Iran and its proxies over the past 14 months before going through the extent of the losses incurred by Hezbollah as a result of its decision to join the conflict against Israel; its longtime secretary general Hassan Nasrallah was killed along with countless other senior leaders, and major military infrastructure was destroyed.

Just about until his killing, Nasrallah maintained a policy that rejected any ceasefire in Lebanon before one was reached in Gaza. Then came a massive intensification of the IDF’s operations against Hezbollah in September, and the terror group agreed to begin discussions on a ceasefire that would officially delink their fighting from the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

While acknowledging Israel’s military gains, Biden insisted that “lasting security for the people of Israel and Lebanon cannot be achieved only on the battlefield.”

Onward to Gaza

Biden said Tuesday that Palestinians in Gaza deserve a similar end to conflict that would soon be enjoyed by those living along the Blue Line.

“The people of Gaza have been through hell, their worlds absolutely shattered; far too many civilians in Gaza have suffered far too much,” Biden said.

While verging on criticism of Israel in that remark, the president was explicit in his blaming of Hamas for refusing to negotiate in good faith for months.

“Now, Hamas has a choice to make. Their only way out is to release the hostages, including American citizens,” Biden said, adding the deal the US is promoting there would allow for a surge of humanitarian aid into Gaza and result in an “end of the war without Hamas in power.”

Biden said the US, Egypt, Qatar — and now Turkey as well — would make another push for a ceasefire in Gaza.

The senior US official briefing reporters clarified that the Biden administration does not view Turkey as a new mediator between Israel and Hamas.

“What the president meant is that we have certain individuals and parties who are now spending time in Turkey, and so [Turkey] was added. But it was not to suggest that they are a broker or a negotiator. It’s to say that we will leave no stone unturned in trying to do this,” said the US official.

The US revealed earlier this month that it had asked Qatar to oust Hamas leaders from the country in late October due to the terror group’s extended refusal to engage in hostage negotiations. Those Hamas officials then moved to Turkey. While the US has cautioned Ankara against hosting Hamas leaders, it has stopped short of requesting the extradition of Khaled Mashaal, who is under US indictment.

Arab officials speaking to The Times of Israel last week called into question the decision to oust Hamas from Qatar if negotiations were just going to continue in Ankara under largely the same format.

The US official maintained that Hamas’s realization following Tuesday’s news that “Hezbollah has decided to abandon them and delink the two conflicts” amounted to “a powerful change of reality on the ground, and we have to see if that’s enough” to spark a breakthrough in hostage talks.

Hamas and other terror groups massacred some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducted 251 from southern Israel on October 7, 2023; 97 of them are still held captive in Gaza, not all of them alive.

Sights on Riyadh

The Lebanon ceasefire moves the Biden administration closer to its vision for a more integrated Middle East — one that includes the establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian state alongside Israel, the president said.

To that end, Biden said the US remains prepared to broker a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which would include “a credible pathway for establishing a Palestinian state.”

Israel under Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected the two-state framework, and a pair of US lawmakers told The Times of Israel months ago that the window to secure a deal before the end of Biden’s term in office had closed.

Nonetheless, Biden said, “I believe this agenda remains possible. In my remaining time in office, I will work tirelessly to advance this vision.”

He acknowledged that a Saudi normalization deal will require Israel to make “hard choices.”

“Now, Israel must be bold in turning tactical gains against Iran and its proxies into a coherent strategy that secures Israel’s long-term safety and advances broader peace and prosperity in the region,” Biden said, in an apparent shot at Netanyahu. The prime minister for months refused to plan at all for the postwar management of Gaza, while rejecting the involvement of a potentially reformed Palestinian Authority, even though it would unlock much-needed support from Israel’s Arab neighbors for reconstruction.

Asked to explain Biden’s optimism about a potential Israel-Saudi normalization agreement following the announcement of the ceasefire, the senior administration official told reporters that conversations US officials have held in the past 24 hours left them with the belief that there “is a window of opportunity here — if we can get some changes in Gaza.”

“The political and geopolitical stars of both are aligned, and we’re going to see what we can do over the next 50 or so days,” the US official said, insisting that Washington is clear-eyed about its prospects and will keep the incoming administration informed on its efforts.

The official was then asked why he was able to maintain this optimistic assessment given repeated assertions by Israeli cabinet members that they will never accept the establishment of a Palestinian state, which is Riyadh’s condition for a deal with Israel.

Reflecting on his career in high-stakes negotiations, the official said he has repeatedly heard leaders enter them with declarations that include words such as “never” and “always.”

“They’ll say, ‘We will never do this, and ‘We will always insist on that,’ but that doesn’t necessarily hold, because when you have that kind of a position you don’t reach an agreement, so I don’t get too excited when I hear those kinds of statements,” he said.

Setting the record straight

Another US official speaking to The Times of Israel fiercely denied Netanyahu’s claim earlier Tuesday that Washington has been delaying weapons shipments to Israel.

“It is no secret: there have been major delays in the supply of weapons and ammunition. This delay is about to be released soon,” Netanyahu said, albeit without naming the Biden administration.

“Other than the shipment of 2,000-pound bombs, there is no policy delay or hold on anything. There’s just not,” the US official said in response.

Hebrew media reports in recent days have quoted unnamed Netanyahu associates claiming that the Biden administration pledged to release withheld weapon shipments in exchange for Israel agreeing to a ceasefire in Lebanon. Other aides to the premier have highlighted that the return of Donald Trump to the White House would also ensure an end to the alleged delay of weapons shipments.

The Biden administration insists that it has only withheld one shipment, of high payload bombs, since May over concern that Israel would use them in densely populated areas, leading to the deaths of large numbers of civilians.

The senior administration official separately said that claims that Israel would receive additional weapons from the US as a result of agreeing to the Lebanon ceasefire were false. Moreover, claims by Netanyahu’s office that the US had threatened to advance a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire if Israel rejected the US-brokered deal were also false.

“Literally, the topic never came up,” the senior US official said.

Asked about reports of Russian involvement in ensuring that Iran cannot replenish Hezbollah’s weapon supply through Syria, as it has in the past, the senior US official declined to respond in detail. “There is no doubt that what we all must focus on is making sure that Iran does not continue to use Syria as a highway of weapons into Lebanon.”

An assist from Trump?

Days before the US presidential election, Netanyahu asked US special envoy for Lebanon Amos Hochstein to come meet him in Jerusalem, where the premier told the Biden aide that there was a window to secure a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, said the senior US official.

Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a Netanyahu confidant, reportedly told Trump aides that Israel wanted to secure a ceasefire with Hezbollah as a “gift” to the US president-elect before he enters office on January 20, though Israeli officials have denied this.

In their meeting earlier this month, Hochstein told Netanyahu that if both sides were serious, he was prepared to launch another round of intensive negotiations over the coming weeks. Netanyahu agreed, the US official recalled.

Once the sides began to make progress, Hochstein briefed members of the Trump transition’s national security team on the broad tenets of the deal, telling them that there was an increasing likelihood that a ceasefire would be reached, the US official said.

Hochstein conducted a follow-up call with Trump’s aides in the last 24 to 48 hours as the deal was being finalized, and the president-elect’s team seemed supportive of the effort, the senior US official added.