US airlines bring competition back to NYC route, but fares won’t begin descent for months

The number of direct flights between Tel Aviv and New York is poised to expand significantly in the coming weeks as US carriers return after over half a year away, with a third Israeli airline waiting in the wings to begin serving the popular route within months.

But while the return of Delta Air Lines and United Airlines and the introduction of Israir will add much-needed seats and flight options, travelers who have been grappling with high airfares are unlikely to see much relief on that front until November at earliest, experts say.

“Prices will not become competitive again until incoming tourism is back to pre-October 7, 2023, war numbers,” said Mark Feldman, CEO of the Ziontours Jerusalem travel agency.

For the last six months, and during extended periods since the October 2023 Hamas massacre plunged the region into war, nonstop service between Ben Gurion Airport and the US has been exclusive to Israel’s flagship carrier El Al and its smaller local competitor Arkia, which began offering flights to New York in early 2025.

On Sunday, Delta will return to Israel, operating a daily nonstop flight between New York’s JFK airport and Ben Gurion. Two days later, United is scheduled to resume flights between Tel Aviv and Newark Airport in New Jersey. Israir, which has not announced when it will begin the route, is expected to start selling tickets only next month.

The resumption of service by the two US carriers will come just in time for the Jewish New Year and Sukkot holiday, a popular time for Israelis to travel, followed by national elections in late October, which may bring in expats seeking to cast ballots. According to Eshet Tours CEO Gil Hahn, prices will likely only begin to drop once demand starts falling off significantly.

“We expect to see the impact on fares starting in November, following the elections and the end of the peak summer and holiday travel seasons,” said Hahn. “The combination of the seasonal decline in demand and the significant increase in capacity could create opportunities and fares on routes to the US that we haven’t seen in quite some time.”

Even then, though, most expect high volatility in fares to persist until geopolitical tensions allow tourist numbers to stabilize, creating a balance between sufficient demand and competitive supply.

“Prices will not normalize until primarily the American incoming travel market to Israel resumes — it did not resume for [Sukkot], and Christians have not started booking for Christmas,” Feldman told The Times of Israel. “We are starting to get interest, but there is still a lot of trepidation.”

Both Delta and United were among dozens of foreign airlines that suspended service to Tel Aviv when the US-Israel was against Iran began, many of which have yet to return.

That includes Air Canada, which will only return in mid-January at earliest, and American Airlines, which has postponed its return to Israel until the end of March, subject to the security situation.

The mass exodus of foreign airlines, which ceded the air travel market to El Al and its much smaller local rivals, came after two and a half years of them repeatedly suspending service in response to missile attacks and other violent flareups as Israel battled Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Iranian regime.

El Al, Arkia and Israir have been accused of profiteering off the lack of competition, keeping prices sky-high to fuel soaring profits.

“The return of US airlines to Ben Gurion Airport is excellent news for Israeli travelers,” said Eshet Tours CEO Gil Hahn. “After a prolonged period in which flight capacity to the US was limited and fares remained high, their return, alongside increased capacity from Israeli carriers, is expected to significantly increase the number of available seats and bring competition back to these routes.”

In the first half of the year, the US was the second most popular destination for direct flights taking off from Ben Gurion, after Greece, according to data by the Israel Airports Authority.

However, despite the upped capacity, airfares over the Jewish holiday period, which begins September 11, remain extremely high, typically $3,000 to $4,000 for a round trip.

For October, prices fall to around $1,400 on El Al or Arkia and around $1,900 on Delta or United, according to Asaf Greenberg, marketing director at online travel company lastminute.co.il. While Israir has not yet disclosed fares for the new route, its prices are expected to be generally in line with the Israeli carriers.

“Based on what we see today, the additional nonstop capacity is improving availability, but fares remain high and volatile,” said Greenberg. “While high fares are clearly influencing consumer choices, the latest data does not suggest that demand for New York is disappearing.”

“On the contrary, bookings have strengthened despite the high prices,” he added.

Feldman claimed that prices on the US carriers were being kept high in October due to them only offering premium seats, seemingly to offset the drop in demand.

“We very much welcome United and Delta coming back, and we would be a lot more thankful if especially United would make seats in lower fare classes available, which they do not, although we can see on the seat maps that their planes are not full,” he asserted.

Israeli carriers continue to dominate demand on the Tel Aviv-New York route, according to data by lastminute.co.il. Currently, El Al and Arkia account for 67 percent of all Tel Aviv–New York searches on the online travel company’s site. Delta and United together represent around 6% of total searches. El Al and Arkia flights account for 52% of bookings on the route at lastminute.co.il.

Ophir Tours chief marketing officer Neta Gafni noted that persisting war fears were likely leaving consumers skittish about purchasing flights on foreign carriers due to the increased risk that they could be canceled.

“The situation with the war is not predictable, as one day President Donald Trump threatens a response to strike Iran when tensions ramp up and the next there is a retraction, while American aircraft are still parked at the airport,” said Gafni. “In this environment, people, are still somewhat afraid to book a flight with foreign or US airlines.”

Before October 7, flights between Israel and the US regularly dipped below $1,000.

According to Hahn, prices on United for flights through the rest of the year remain at over $1,900, though on El Al, Arkia and Delta, they hover between $1,350 and $1,400 for mid-November trips.

Come late December, when Christian pilgrims and winter break vacationers may start to fill planes, prices fall to as low as $945 for Delta, with even El Al going sub-$1,200.

“Israelis are filling up 80% of all planes and incoming travelers are only 20%,” said Feldman. “Until that number goes back to a 50/50 or a 60/40 ratio, there will not be any competitive prices.”