Why are the US and Saudi Arabia discussing a civil nuclear deal?
A nuclear power industry in the kingdom could yield commercial and strategic gains, yet raise risk of weapons proliferation; Israel normalization now seems out of the picture
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Saudi Arabia and the United States are discussing a deal to cooperate on the kingdom’s ambitions to develop a civil nuclear industry, talks that have long been complicated by regional politics and concerns over weapons proliferation.
Here are some of the main issues at play:
Why does Saudi Arabia want a nuclear program?
As the world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia may not seem an obvious candidate for nuclear power, but it aims to reduce carbon emissions and free up crude for export under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 economic plan.
The US Energy Information Administration said last year that 68 percent of Saudi electricity was generated by burning gas and 32% by burning oil, with 1.4 million barrels a day of crude being used for power generation during the peak month of June.
Atomic power could displace some of that, including for energy-intensive water desalination and air conditioning, allowing the kingdom to make more money from oil sales.
However, Saudi Arabia has also said that if longtime foe Iran develops a nuclear weapon, it would have to follow suit — a declaration apparently aimed at ramping up pressure on Tehran, but which has also fueled concern about its own ambitions.
In January, it said it would enrich uranium — a process that can also be used as part of a military program — to create ‘yellowcake’ fuel for nuclear power generation that it could sell.
Any deal with Washington would likely address safeguards to assuage worries about military ambitions, on top of Saudi Arabia’s existing commitment not to pursue a bomb under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
What’s in it for the United States?
There could be strategic and commercial gains.
Civil nuclear cooperation was an important inducement along with security guarantees in an effort by Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden to broker a deal for Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalize relations.
However, those two issues are now uncoupled, Reuters has reported, though a nuclear deal could be a sweetener in US diplomatic efforts with the kingdom. Riyadh has ruled out normalizing ties with Israel without Palestinian statehood.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright met Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman in April and said the two countries were on “a pathway” to a civil nuclear agreement. He made no mention of a wider deal over other issues such as normalization.
A deal would put US industry in a prime spot to win contracts to build Saudi nuclear power plants as well as providing insight into the kingdom’s atomic program that could alleviate any US worries over weapons proliferation.
Under Section 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act of 1954, the US may negotiate agreements to engage in significant civil nuclear cooperation with other nations.
The act specifies nine nonproliferation criteria that states must meet to keep them from using the technology to develop nuclear arms or transfer sensitive materials to others.
US law stipulates congressional review of such pacts.
Saudi Arabia has options
Should the US-Saudi talks fail, several countries with established nuclear industries have expressed interest or are seen as potential partners for Saudi Arabia’s nuclear program.
State-owned China National Nuclear Corp (CNNC) reportedly submitted a bid in 2023 to construct a nuclear plant. Russia’s state nuclear firm Rosatom, which built a nuclear plant in Egypt, has also signed preliminary cooperation agreements with Riyadh. Other potential contenders include South Korea, which built reactors in the neighboring United Arab Emirates, and France.
The choice of partner will likely depend on technological offerings, financing, and geopolitical alignment, including conditions related to nuclear fuel handling.
Uranium enrichment
A key issue is whether Washington might agree to build a uranium enrichment facility on Saudi territory, when it might do so, and whether Saudi personnel might have access to it or it would be run solely by US staff in a “black box” arrangement.
Without rigorous safeguards built into an agreement, Saudi Arabia, which has uranium ore reserves on its territory, could theoretically use an enrichment facility to produce highly enriched uranium, which, if purified enough, can yield fissile material for bombs.
Another issue is whether Riyadh would agree to make a Saudi investment in a US-based and US-owned uranium enrichment plant and to hire US companies to build Saudi nuclear reactors.
There are diplomatic issues too: Washington’s top regional ally Israel has repeatedly voiced opposition to the idea of a Saudi civil nuclear program.
The Times of Israel Community.