A scorching 2100: Israeli forecasters predict blistering heat in decades to come
Israel Meteorological Service suggests that by the end of the century, peak Tel Aviv temperatures could top 49.4°C (121°F), with overall rainfall slated to drop
As temperatures blaze across the Jewish state, the Israel Meteorological Service released an alarming report predicting that the average heat will rise 3.5 degrees Celsius (6 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century, and extreme weather events will become more common.
The report, issued Tuesday, says that over the past 30 years, the temperature in Israel has risen at a rate of approximately 0.6 degrees Celsius per decade, a rate it expects to increase as the 21st century continues. Globally, the IMS report says, the temperature has increased by 0.22 degrees Celsius per decade.
A rise is also expected in the frequency of extreme weather conditions, the report says. By 2100, a temperature peak above 45°C (112°F) will be expected every 1-3 years, while temperatures surpassing 50°C (122°F) will be expected every 15-25 years.
At the end of the 21st century, the report says, the highest temperature recorded in Tel Aviv could be 49.4°C (121°F), with peaks of 48°C (118°F) predicted in Jerusalem and 55.3°C (132°F) in Eilat.
The IMS also predicted a drop of 20-25% in both the amount of rain and the number of rainy days compared to today. Alongside that, it said, instances of brief, intense rain events across the coastal plain of Israel are expected to increase.
Such changes over the next 75 years are expected to have a major impact on Israel’s agricultural output, as well as other infrastructure, energy and emergency responsiveness.
“The findings of this report provide clear indications of the current climate trends that are already affecting Israel and those expected to continue impacting the country in the coming decades,” the IMS said in the report. “These trends have significant implications for all areas of life in Israel, including health, infrastructure, drainage, emergency services, agriculture, energy, environment, water, and more.”
Prolonged high temperatures can quickly dry soil, triggering a rapid-onset drought that can affect agriculture, water resources and energy supplies. They can also send people — especially children and the elderly — to the emergency room, and can buckle railroad tracks and cause power lines to sag, leading to transit delays and disruptions. They can also overload electric systems with high demand and lead to blackouts just when people have the greatest need for cooling.
According to experts, Israel — along with the rest of the Middle East and North Africa — is seeing temperatures rise faster than the rest of the world because the band of tropical climate to the north and south of the Equator is expanding.
These shifts, according to the research, are caused by changes such as the opening of the southern hemisphere ozone hole, warming black soot in polluted air from Asia, and rising air — as well as sea surface — temperatures caused by greenhouse gases (from burning fossil fuels).
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
