‘When, not if’: Biden could drop out of presidential race as early as this weekend

Sources close to the president believe he is likely to endorse VP Kamala Harris as Democratic party nominee; NYT reports Biden beginning to accept idea he can’t win election

President Joe Biden speaks at a campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, Friday, June 28, 2024. (AP/Matt Kelley)
President Joe Biden speaks at a campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, Friday, June 28, 2024. (AP/Matt Kelley)

United States President Joe Biden could drop out of the presidential race as soon as this weekend, according to a report Thursday, after weeks of mounting pressure for the 81-year-old Democrat to quit over concerns over his mental acuity and fears he won’t be able to beat the Republican candidate, former US president Donald Trump.

Citing a number of senior Democrats, Axios reported that although Biden has publicly said he will remain in the race, he knows he won’t be able to continue his campaign amid the heavy scrutiny of his competence and dire polling of recent weeks.

The outlet cited top aides as increasingly believing it was a matter of when, not if, Biden would quit the race.

The New York Times also reported on Thursday that Biden has begun to accept the idea that he may not be able to win the November 5 election and may have to drop out, citing several people close to the president.

“The New York Times reporting is absolutely wrong,” Biden campaign co-chair Cedric Richmond told MSNBC. “The president has said that he is running and it’s the end of story.”

Doubt over Biden’s ability to stand as the Democratic nominee began to show after his stumbling debate performance against Trump last month, when his halted delivery and meandering comments fueled concerns that he wasn’t up to the task of leading the country for another four years.

US President Joe Biden and Republican nominee, former US President Donald Trump, participate in the first presidential debate of the 2024 elections at CNN’s studios in Atlanta, Georgia, June 27, 2024. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP)

However, the pressure has increased significantly in recent days, the sources said, as senior Democratic lawmakers and the president’s close friends publicly called on him to do what they said was the right thing and stand down from seeking reelection.

US media reported Wednesday that in recent days, US Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi both attempted to persuade Biden that he was making the wrong decision by continuing his campaign.

Pelosi, according to CNN, told Biden in a call that not only could his decision to stay on hand Trump the presidency, but it could destroy the Democrats’ chances of winning back control of the House of Representatives.

US House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has expressed similar views to Biden, ABC News reported, while Democratic US Representative Adam Schiff of California publicly called for Biden to drop out of the race, becoming the 20th congressional Democrat to do so.

On Thursday, The Washington Post reported that former president Barack Obama had told associates he believed Biden’s ability to win the election was “greatly diminished,” and that he should seriously contemplate whether he should continue running.

Further upping the ante, a survey published by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research on Wednesday found that nearly two-thirds of Democrats believe Biden should withdraw from the race and allow the party to nominate a different candidate.

Democratic officials close to Biden have reportedly expressed frustration with his lack of understanding of his position. One well-known Democrat was quoted by Axios as saying the president was “forcing people who like him and respect him to resort to trying to shame him” into quitting.

Speaking to Axios, an unnamed “close friend” of the president said that Biden’s “choice is to be one of history’s heroes, or to be sure of the fact that there’ll never be a Biden presidential library.”

“I pray that he does the right thing. He’s headed that way,” the friend added.

Although a senior Biden aide claimed to the news outlet that the president “has become more committed to staying in the race” in recent days, others have reported that he has started asking about US Vice President Kamala Harris’s chances if she were to face off against Trump in November.

Should Biden bow out, he will likely endorse Harris as his replacement, but will also let the delegates determine who the nominee should be if they disagree with the appointment.

Harris seen as better option, but not the best

Recent polls have suggested that while Harris could do better than Biden against Trump, she would still face a tight contest, Reuters reported earlier this month.

A New York Times/Siena poll conducted ahead of the attempted assassination of Trump at a rally last weekend found that in two key states, Harris was in a slightly stronger position against Trump than Biden.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a post-debate campaign rally, June 28, 2024, in Las Vegas, Nevada. (AP/Ronda Churchill)

In Virginia, where Biden leads over Trump with three percentage points, the poll found that Harris would be ahead by five points. And in Pennsylvania, where Biden is trailing Trump by three points, Harris would significantly close the gap, with just one point between her and Trump.

The poll noted that in both scenarios, the differences were within the margin of error.

While Harris would appear to be the natural choice to replace Biden, a poll conducted by BlueLabs and first reported on by Politico earlier this week found that four other Democrats would outperform Biden by roughly five points overall across battleground states. While Harris also outperformed Biden in the poll, the margin was narrower.

According to the poll, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Maryland Governor Wes Moore, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer were all found to outperform both Biden and Harris.

As things currently stand, senior Democrats estimate that Biden is pursuing a razor-thin path to reelection, as four of the seven key battleground states are looking increasingly out of reach.

Trump has been leading the polls in three states claimed by Biden in 2020 — Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — as well as in North Carolina, which the Democrats had at one point hoped to take back from Trump.

The loss of the four states would mean that Biden would only be able to cobble together the 270 Electoral College votes needed to clinch the Presidency if he were to win the Rust Belt manufacturing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, and a congressional district in Nebraska that could also soon be at risk.

Were Biden to remain the Democratic nominee and that desired map were to materialize, it would eke out a victory with just 270 electoral college votes to Trump’s 268, the narrowest victory since Republican Rutherford B. Hayes won by one electoral college vote in 1876.

Reuters contributed to this report.

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