Poll finds deep divisions on Gaza war goals as post-October 7 solidarity dissipates
A year after Hamas massacre, Israel Democracy Institute survey shows most Israelis want war to end, hostages’ return to be its primary goal — but Netanyahu’s voter base disagrees
Michael Bachner is a news editor at The Times of Israel
A year into the multifront war sparked by Hamas’s October 7, 2023, massacre in the Gaza border area, a majority of Israelis — though not Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s voter base — want to end the fighting, a poll published Monday found, illustrating a breakdown of the societal solidarity that surged immediately following the attack.
As the war has progressed and widened beyond Gaza, Israelis increasingly believe that fighting in the Strip has run its course and Israel’s top objective there should be the safe return of the 101 hostages held by Hamas. Many expressed dissatisfaction with the way Netanyahu and other political leaders have managed the conflict, but gave military leaders slightly higher grades, according to the poll published by the Israel Democracy Institute.
Asked if the time has come for the war in Gaza to end, 53 percent of respondents said it has, while 36% said it hasn’t. The poll found Arab Israelis overwhelmingly in favor of ending the war, while Jewish respondents were split between halting the fighting and pressing on, by 45% to 43% respectively.
Among Jewish Israelis, support for continuing the war was highest among self-described right-wingers, 61% of whom said it should go on, compared to 27% who support a ceasefire. Those on the left (83%) and center (61%) were more likely to oppose continued fighting.
Both Jews (56%) and Arabs (45%) cited fears over the fate of hostages held in Gaza as the top reason for supporting an imminent end to the war. The second most common reason cited by Jews (20%) was the need to focus solely on the northern front against Hezbollah in Lebanon, while for Arabs (14%) it is the great cost in human life and the desire for quiet, peace and security.
The survey was conducted via internet and phone by the IDI’s Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research on September 15-19. The poll included 1,000 respondents weighted to paint an accurate picture of Israel’s disparate ethnic, political and religious tribes. The maximum sampling error was 3.1 percent.
When the full sample was asked whether returning the hostages or toppling Hamas should be the top goal of the war in Gaza, 62% answered returning the hostages while just 29% said vanquishing the Palestinian terror group. In January, a poll found a much slimmer majority of 51% putting the hostages as the main priority, over 36% who wanted Israel to focus on taking on Hamas.
Arabs (77%), left-wing Jews (86%) and centrists (78%) all overwhelmingly favor the return of the hostages as the primary war goal, while right-wingers are split 44%-44% between both answers. Religious Jews (56% of religious Zionists and 50% of the ultra-Orthodox) favor victory over Hamas, while there are significant gender differences among Jews on the issue: 24% of women say toppling Hamas should be the top priority, compared with 40.5% of men, while 68% of women and 50% of men favor returning the abductees.
The survey found that nearly four in 10 Israelis think regular protests throughout the war urging the government to reach a hostage deal with Hamas hurt chances for their return, compared to 29% who think they help and a full quarter of respondents who say the protests do not affect chances either way.
While Arabs overwhelmingly think the protests improve chances for the hostages’ return (68%), only 52% of left-wing Jews agreed, with even lower confidence in the demonstrations among centrists and right-wingers.
Asked who should control Gaza after the war, Israelis are split between a multinational force (37%) and Israel itself (34%), with only 11.5% saying the Palestinian Authority, 2% answering a weakened Hamas, and 15.5% saying they don’t know.
This question, too, revealed deep disagreements between political camps. Most right-wing Jews (56%) believe Israel should maintain control of the Strip, with almost all the rest (31%) backing a multinational force. Centrists prefer a multinational force (57%) followed by Israeli control (19%), while left-wingers say a multinational force (43%) followed by the Palestinian Authority (27%). Among Arabs, the leading option is the PA (30%) followed by a multinational force (20%), Israel (9%) and Hamas (8%), with 33% saying they don’t know.
Sense of togetherness has plunged
Perhaps the most dramatic difference revealed by the survey between the early stages of the war and now is a deteriorating perceived level of solidarity between the various parts of Israeli society.
While the first stages of the war saw bitter internal divisions cast aside — with 54% saying in December 2023 that the level of solidarity was high and only 19% rating it as low — the deep societal rifts have returned in full force, with only 26% now rating the sense of togetherness as high and 44% saying it is low. The plunge in solidarity is particularly marked among Jewish Israelis.
Asked to rate the functioning of top political figures as well as IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, respondents gave Netanyahu an average score of 2.17 on a scale of 1 (very poor) to 5 (excellent), with Opposition Leader Yair Lapid (2.10) and far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir (1.90) getting even lower scores, and former war cabinet minister Benny Gantz (2.47), Defense Minister Yoav Gallant (2.67) and Halevi (2.75) being graded somewhat higher.
Unsurprisingly, the results differ greatly between political camps, with Netanyahu and Ben Gvir receiving far higher grades from right-wing Jews than from any other group, while Gallant, Halevi, Lapid and Gantz got far higher scores from centrist and left-wing Jews than from their hawkish counterparts. Arabs gave the highest scores to Lapid and Gantz.
Following is a table showing the percentages of those who rated the functioning of the individuals since October 7 as good or excellent (grades of 4–5).
Asked to grade the IDF’s combat capabilities demonstrated during the war, Jews from all camps overwhelmingly gave positive scores of 4-5 (86%), while 45% of Arabs rated it a low 1-2 and only 26% gave a high grade. In total, 76% of Israelis expressed themselves as satisfied with the army’s competence.
Even bigger divisions were observed when asked about the military’s ethical conduct during the war — 83% of Jews rated it high, while 67.5% of Arabs rated it low. In total, 71% believe the IDF has been ethical, while 17% say it hasn’t. In the same vein, most Jews oppose probing soldiers for suspected abuse of detained Palestinian terror suspects (61.5%) and back reduced punishments for those found guilty (60%), while 75% of Arabs back probes and 77% of them support punishing convicts to the full extent of the law.
The survey shows most Arabs (76%), left-wing Jews (74%) and centrists (64%) think elections should be held in 2024, while 55% of right-wing Jews believe they should be held at the end of the government’s four-year term in 2026.
Finally, 45% are optimistic about Israel’s future while 48% are pessimistic. Arabs are overwhelmingly pessimistic (69% versus 25% who are optimistic), while 29% of left-wing Jews, 40% of centrists and 59.5% of right-wingers are optimistic.
