Unapologetic optimism: How US approaches its messaging around hostage negotiations
Biden spokesperson tells ToI positivity voiced repeatedly throughout talks has always been warranted, even if deal hasn’t yet materialized; insists US ‘clear-eyed’ about challenges
Jacob Magid is The Times of Israel's US bureau chief
WASHINGTON — Going back at least six months, top US officials have gone on record insisting that a ceasefire and hostage-release deal between Israel and Hamas is imminent.
High-level summits in various European and Arab capitals have come and gone since, but a deal has remained elusive.
Earlier this month, Washington submitted what it described as a “final bridging proposal” and said the American, Qatari and Egyptian mediators would hold a high-level gathering a week later “with the aim to conclude the deal.”
That summit took place last weekend in Cairo, but the result was an agreement to hold another round of lower-level talks this week in Doha.
In a Tuesday interview with The Times of Israel, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby defended the Biden administration’s messaging over the past half a year.
“I don’t think we’re going to ever be apologetic for being hopeful,” he said.
An Israeli negotiator and two officials from Arab mediating countries who spoke with The Times of Israel in recent days expressed skepticism that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar are willing to make the compromises necessary for a deal, and their negotiators continued to clash over the scope of the IDF’s withdrawal from strategic areas in and around Gaza.
The US appears to be the only stakeholder currently broadcasting optimism.
Explaining why, Kirby pointed to Hezbollah’s cross-border attack over the weekend that was largely thwarted by Israel.
“To be able to say that the talks weren’t disrupted, and in fact, are continuing after several hundred drones and rockets fired by Hezbollah on Israeli soil — for there still to be talks, even at the working group level, I think that’s noteworthy,” the White House spokesperson said.
He argued that the final stage of negotiations is always the most difficult, while insisting that the current trajectory is positive.
This, though, is what he and other US officials have been saying for months.
“We are closer now than we’ve been before,” he told reporters in July.
A nearly identical statement was made by Kirby two weeks later and by Biden nine days after that.
“Yes, we have had some comments that conveyed a sense of optimism — and again, no apologies for that — because that’s how we felt at the time,” Kirby said in the Tuesday interview from his White House office.
“But we also caveated it every single time with an understanding that nothing’s negotiated until everything’s negotiated, that we weren’t there yet, and that we were clear-eyed about the challenges,” he asserted.
Asked whether repeatedly raising expectations risks equal-sized setbacks if the talks fail, Kirby was dismissive of the concern.
“We’re not worried about that. We’re worried about being as honest and transparent with the public as we can be in the moment,” he explained.
“We’re not sitting back, wringing our hands over some possible collapse and some sort of public perception that we’ve been less than honest,” Kirby continued. “The truth is, we have been directly honest every step of the way. It’s just that we haven’t achieved the level of success that we had hoped to achieve in previous moments.”
He then highlighted the IDF’s Tuesday rescue of hostage Farhan al-Qadi from southern Gaza, arguing that it served as a reminder of the importance of maintaining optimistic messaging regarding efforts to free the remaining 104 hostages.
“My goodness, how wonderful is that news?” Kirby exclaimed. “But it just reminds you that every single day we can’t get a deal is another day that lives are increasingly at risk.”
“If you lose your sense of optimism, then you really will have a credibility problem with the public,” he argued.
Blame game
Last week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited the region and after meeting with Netanyahu declared that the Israeli premier had accepted Washington’s bridging proposal, while Hamas had yet to follow suit.
The comments surprised the Arab mediators who felt the US offer over-catered to new Israeli demands, three officials told The Times of Israel last week.
In the days since, the mediators have been re-negotiating some of the bridging proposal’s terms, the officials said, adding that the US has subsequently avoided framing Hamas as the sole obstacle to a deal.
Kirby still made the broader points that the events of the year could have been avoided had Hamas not launched its October 7 onslaught and if it released the remainder of the 251 hostages it kidnapped that day.
But speaking more specifically to the latest negotiation round he avoided placing blame on one side.
“I know it’s tempting for people to try to pin down who’s responsible for holding this up… But I’m just not going to get into that,” Kirby said.
He also avoided getting into specifics regarding one of the deal’s main sticking points — the Israeli withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor.
Netanyahu has insisted on keeping Israeli troops along the Egyptian-Gaza border route in order to prevent weapons smuggling, making it one of several new demands he submitted last month, which slowed negotiations.
Kirby noted that the general framework backed by both sides requires the IDF to leave major population centers during the first phase of the deal. “Beyond that, I don’t want to comment,” he said.
Netanyahu has sought to maintain an IDF presence in the Philadelphi Corridor indefinitely — beyond the first of the deal’s three six-week phases. This has been a nonstarter for Hamas, as well as for Egypt, leaving the other mediators with an uphill battle to secure a compromise.
Six weeks at a time
Even as it negotiates a ceasefire, the US has continued to insist that it opposes Hamas being allowed to remain in control of Gaza after the war is over.
Asked how the two policy goals can coexist, Kirby said the current focus is on securing an agreement on only the first phase of the hostage deal.
“Right now, we’re making a deal to get a ceasefire in place for six weeks so that we can get humanitarian assistance in and we can start to get some of the hostages out,” he explained. “If we get to phase two, then you can actually start to talk about a more permanent end to the war.”
The White House spokesperson acknowledged that the administration is still trying to strategize the implementation of the deal’s second and third phases in a manner that strips Hamas of its control over the Strip.
“That’s a question that we’ve been asking ourselves and our counterparts since about the eighth of October. We don’t have the answers to all that,” Kirby admitted. “But nothing’s changed about our view that the Israeli people should not have to live next door to a Gaza run by Hamas and a terrorist like Mr. Sinwar.”
As for whether the US has any backup plans to the deal it has yet to close after nearly 11 months, Kirby wasn’t interested in entertaining the idea.
“It would be irresponsible to start going down hypothetical rabbit holes right now when we are as close as we believe we are to getting a deal,” he said.
