Likud polls as largest party for first time since Oct 7; Netanyahu favored over Gantz
PM’s party would win 22 mandates if election held today, two more than Gantz’s National Unity; current coalition still seen losing its majority
The Likud party, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, would be the largest party in the Knesset if elections were held today, according to a Maariv poll released on Friday. It was the poll’s first such result since war broke out on October 7.
In addition, when asked who is more fit to be prime minister, Netanyahu or National Unity leader Benny Gantz, more respondents chose Netanyahu (48%) over Gantz (42%). About a fifth (18%) of respondents said they didn’t know.
Despite Likud’s rise, the parties currently making up the coalition would still lose their majority, winning 53 mandates out of the Knesset’s 120, down from their current 64.
Netanyahu’s support plummeted in the wake of the October 7 attack last year, when thousands of Hamas-led terrorists invaded southern Israel, killing some 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages, amid acts of brutality and sexual assault.
Some 72% of Israelis still believe Netanyahu should step down as prime minister, according to other recent polling.
But the prime minister’s support relative to other politicians has largely recovered since then, with a Channel 12 poll in May showing Netanyahu again favored by voters over Gantz, for the first time since spring 2023.
In an interview this week with Time Magazine, Netanyahu said he would remain in office “as long as I believe I can help lead Israel to a future of security, enduring security and prosperity.”
According to Friday’s Maariv poll, if elections were held today, Likud would win 22 mandates — up one from the same poll last week. Gantz’s National Unity would get 20 seats.
The poll gave Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu 15 mandates, Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid 13, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox Shas 10, and the far-right Otzma Yehudit 10.
The new left-wing Democrats party, a merger of Labor and Meretz, led by Yair Golan, would get 9 seats, the Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism 7, the predominantly Arab Hadash Ta’al 5, the Islamist Ra’am 5, and Bezalel Smotrich’s far-right Religious Zionism 4.
Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope party and leftist Arab party Balad would fail to pass the minimum electoral threshold of 3.25%, receiving 2.5% and 2% of the vote, respectively.
The poll was conducted August 7-8, among a representative sample of 501 Israeli adults, Jewish and Arab, with a 4.4% margin of error.
It came as Israel braces for a potential attack with threats from Iran and its proxy Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon.
Asked whether respondents supported moving forward with a preemptive strike against Iran and Hezbollah, even at the expense of a hostage deal with Hamas, more Israelis were inclined to prioritize efforts to reach a hostage deal (48%) than were inclined to move forward with a preemptive strike (42%), and 10% said they didn’t know.
The flare-up put a hold on Israel’s ongoing negotiations with Hamas to secure the release of Israeli hostages held captive by the terror group in exchange for a ceasefire and the release of hundreds of Palestinian security prisoners.
It is believed that 111 of the 251 hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7 remain in Gaza, including the bodies of 39 confirmed dead by the IDF. Hamas is also holding two Israeli civilians who entered the Strip in 2014 and 2015, as well as the bodies of two IDF soldiers who were killed in 2014.
Late Thursday, it was announced that negotiations will resume next week, with negotiators set to fly out next Thursday, August 15, “to finalize the details for implementing the framework agreement.”
