Channel 12 exit poll shows no clear victor: Netanyahu’s Likud is largest party but his opponents have bigger bloc

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party has won the most votes in Tuesday’s election, but neither of Israel’s two political camps has a clear path to forming a government, Channel 12’s exit poll shows.

The exit poll shows that the bloc of Jewish-led parties opposing Netanyahu is projected to win a total of 52 seats, compared to 50 seats for the parties supporting the premier. Neither is close to a 61-seat majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Arab-led parties, which also oppose Netanyahu, are expected to win a total of 18 seats, a record number for that sector.

Likud will win 24 Knesset seats, according to the exit poll, while the centrist opposition Yashar party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, will win 22 seats.

The lack of a clear victor is in line with weeks of surveys that predicted an inconclusive election. It indicates that the coming days and weeks will see parties and their leaders negotiate with each other in an attempt to cobble together enough support to form a government, possibly with the support of the Arab-led parties, which have generally not joined governing coalitions.

Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot may declare victory and appeal to President Isaac Herzog to give them the first shot at forming a government, given that Netanyahu leads the largest party and Eisenkot leads the biggest bloc.

But it also leaves open the possibility that neither Netanyahu nor his opponents will be able to assemble a coalition. In that case, Israel may hold a repeat election, with Netanyahu remaining as caretaker prime minister. That would be a repeat of 2019 to 2022, when the country held five rounds of voting.

The exit poll comes as the Central Elections Committee has begun counting votes. The committee will provide official tallies throughout the night, and the actual results often differ from exit poll projections.

In third place, according to the exit poll, is the opposition B’Yachad party, led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett, with 12 seats, then the Arab-led Joint List party with 11 seats.

Two small parties, the nonaligned Reservists and right-wing People of Israel, are projected to fall short of the minimum 3.25 percent of votes needed to enter the Knesset, according to Channel 12.