While much of the attention in the lead up to the vote was focused on Pennsylvania and Florida, it appears Ohio may once again play the kingmaker.
A New York Times analysis finds Trump likely to win Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, though Biden currently holds a slight lead in NC with some 81% of votes counted there.
However, Nate Silver of 538 notes that while if Trump wins all three he will have a 50-50 chance of winning the election, if he loses Ohio, it will drop to 1%.
No Republican in the modern era has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio.
Biden’s lead in the state has slimmed somewhat to 51%-48%, with some 63% reporting.