Party led by Bennett would overtake Likud in elections, could form coalition – poll
Anti-Netanyahu bloc headed by former PM would win 67 seats to coalition’s 48; Bennett preferred to Netanyahu as PM by 39% to 31%; Smotrich’s party fails to clear Knesset threshold
If former prime minister Naftali Bennett makes a political comeback, his party would be the largest in the Knesset and would have multiple options for forming a majority coalition, according to a poll released by Channel 12 News on Thursday.
The poll examined a range of possibilities, including an election with the current parties, an election with Bennett at the head of a new party and also Bennett running on a joint list with Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu.
In all three scenarios, the current 64-seat coalition government fails to retain a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
Without Bennett returning to the political fray, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and Benny Gantz’s National Unity would tie with 22 seats as the largest parties, followed by opposition leader Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid at 15. Yisrael Beytenu would be fourth with 14 seats, more than doubling its current six.
The joint Labor and Meretz list, the Democrats, would win 11 seats, Shas would win 10, far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit and the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism would win eight each, and Arab parties Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am would win five each.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, the Arab party Balad, and Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope wouldn’t cross the threshold.
In terms of the Knesset blocs, the current Netanyahu-led coalition (comprising Likud, Shas, UTJ, Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism) would win 48 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. Today’s opposition parties would win 67, with Hadash-Ta’al, which would join neither bloc, holding the other 5.
If Bennett were to run in the next election, his party would become the largest in the Knesset, winning 21 seats. However, he would draw most of his support from other opposition parties.
In this scenario, Likud would win 19 seats and Gantz’s National Unity’s would get 13. Yesh Atid would also lose seats, taking 11, and Yisrael Beytenu would win 10. Otzma Yehudit would win seven seats and the rest of the parties would remain unchanged from the scenario without Bennett.
In terms of the Knesset blocs, the current Netanyahu-led coalition would win just 44 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. Today’s opposition parties, plus Bennett’s party, would win 71 seats in all, with Hadash-Ta’al holding the remaining 5.
In the event that Bennett and Liberman were to unite, they would win 26 seats together with the Likud winning 20, National Unity winning 15, and Yesh Atid gaining 12. In this case, the current opposition would be weaker than if Bennett ran alone, with 69 seats to the coalition’s 46.
Channel 12 analysts noted that Bennett and Liberman would win more seats running separately and said the poll could put an end to talks of them running on a joint list.
The poll did not examine who would join Bennett in his new party; several of the politicians who Bennett picked for his previous Yamina party jumped ship and helped bring down his government, prompting the November 2022 elections that returned Netanyahu to office.
Respondents also considered Bennett to be the best-suited candidate for prime minister, preferring him over Netanyahu, Gantz, and Lapid.
When faced against Lapid, 35% preferred Netanyahu, 27% said Lapid, with the rest saying neither was the right pick. Gantz was also considered less suitable than Netanyahu, with 30% picking the former and 32% choosing the current prime minister. The remaining 33% said neither was right.
Bennett, however, had the highest approval rating at 39% compared to 31% for Netanyahu, with the remaining 25% voting for neither.
Israelis vote for parties and do not pick the prime minister directly.
The pro-Netanyahu bloc defeated the Bennett-helmed government in elections in November 2022, winning 64 seats. General elections are not due in Israel until October 2026.
Channel 12 did not provide information on how the poll was conducted or provide a margin of error.
The Kan public broadcaster also aired a survey Thursday evening that showed a theoretical right-wing alliance led by Bennett, Liberman and Sa’ar polling as the largest party at 28 seats, followed by Likud at 21, National Unity at 16, Yesh Atid at 11, Shas at 10, UTJ at eight, Otzma Yehudit at eight and Labor at eight, while Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am would each pick up five seats.
Parties that back the current government would have 47 seats in such a scenario, while the factions that composed the previous Bennett-led coalition would have 68 and the non-aligned Hadash-Ta’al five.
When narrowed down to current Knesset factions, the Kan survey had Likud as the largest party with 24 seats, which together with the rest of the pro-Netanyahu factions polled at 54 seats, while the bloc led by Gantz and Lapid had a bare majority of 61 seats and Hadash-Ta’al five.
Kan said its survey included 605 respondents, without giving a margin of error.
