Poll shows postwar popularity bump for PM and Likud, but no majority for his coalition
More survey respondents say they prefer Netanyahu to Naftali Bennett for premier; TV station reports that results could lead PM to shelve idea of snap election
A poll taken after a ceasefire was agreed to Tuesday between Israel and Iran, ending a 12-day conflict that was largely viewed as a resounding success for Israel, saw Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party win a small bump in popularity, but not enough for his current coalition to come close to forming a majority.
The poll found that the gain by Netanyahu’s Likud largely comes at the expense of his current coalition partners, and showed that the current pro-Netanyahu coalition bloc would win only 49 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. The opposition parties would win 61, while the Arab parties, who have largely stayed out of coalitions, were predicted to pick up 10.
Netanyahu’s Likud was forecast to win 26 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, up four from prewar polls.
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett’s nascent party would win 24 seats, and the left-wing The Democrats would take 12.
Current opposition leader Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, the Sephardic ultra-Orthodox Shas and hawkish Yisrael Beytenu would all win nine seats.
The Ashkenazi Haredi party United Torah Judaism would win eight seats, Benny Gantz’s National Unity would win seven, while the far-right Otzma Yehudit would win six.
The poll found that the two Arab parties, Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am, would each win five.
The survey had the coalition’s Religious Zionism party, led by ultranationalist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, failing to pick up enough votes to enter the next Knesset.
Asked who they would prefer for prime minister, the public chose Netanyahu over Bennett for the first time this year, with 38 percent saying Netanyahu and 35% picking Bennett. A further 21% said neither of them were suitable and 6% did not know.
Netanyahu also led by greater margins over other opposition leaders.
Israel does not choose the prime minister by direct election, but by which party can put together a coalition.
The survey, conducted by pollster Manu Geva’s Midgam firm, included 404 respondents and had a 4.4 percent margin of error.
Channel 12 quoted sources close to Netanyahu as being disappointed with the results, saying he had expected a larger bump due to the war. The poll results could scupper thoughts of calling a snap election, the network said, a day after reporting Netanyahu and his inner circle were weighing the idea.
Netanyahu has been struggling in polls since the October 7, 2023, Hamas massacre, with surveys forecasting he would fall far short of the seats needed to form a legislative majority if elections were held, though recent polls have shown rising support for Likud.
At a press conference on Sunday, Netanyahu indicated his intention to seek reelection, saying he still had “many missions” to complete, and would seek to do so for as long as “the people” of Israel want him to.
Though a national vote is currently only mandated to take place in October 2026, it is not unlikely that the government will fall before then, as Netanyahu faces various potential coalition crises.
The Times of Israel Community.