Trump said planning to renew ‘maximum pressure’ strategy against Iran
President-elect’s policies of harsh sanctions led to mixed results during previous term, as Islamic Republic advanced toward nuclear weapon and strengthened proxies
US President-elect Donald Trump intends to reinstall the “maximum pressure” policy his previous administration imposed against Iran, according to people briefed on his plans who spoke to The Wall Street Journal Thursday.
During his previous term, Trump installed drastic sanctions against Tehran’s oil industry with the intent of pressuring the Islamic Republic against advancing its nuclear program and funding terror groups across the Middle East.
The former president also withdrew the US from a six-nation agreement with Iran that would have paused its nuclear development, and ordered the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, who was at the time the head of the Quds Force in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
The Biden administration eased some of the pressure as it sought to reengage with Iran.
According to people familiar with Trump’s plans who spoke to The Wall Street Journal, the incoming administration seeks to renew its previous strategy by rapidly inhibiting Iran’s oil industry through methods including going after foreign ports and traders dealing in Iranian oil. These policies had mixed results, as they suffocated the Iranian economy but encouraged Tehran to continue to advance nuclear development while bolstering its proxies.
It is unclear, however, to what extent Trump would increase the pressure on Iran.
“I think you are going to see the sanctions go back on, you are going to see much more, both diplomatically and financially, they are trying to isolate Iran,” a former White House official told The Journal. “I think the perception is that Iran is definitely in a position of weakness right now, and now is an opportunity to exploit that weakness.”
A new variable in Trump’s approach to Iran is the report that Iranian agents sought to assassinate him and former top national security aides after he left office in revenge for Soleimani’s assassination.
“People tend to take that stuff personally,” Mick Mulroy, a top Pentagon official for the Mideast in Trump’s first term, told The Journal. “If he’s going to be hawkish on any particular country, designated major adversaries, it’s Iran.”
Some former Trump staffers told The Journal that despite the hostilities, Trump may seek a diplomatic deal with Iran during his second term. Mulroy told The Journal that while Trump likes to make deals, he will only do so “if it’s his deal.”
Regardless, it does not seem that Trump seeks regime change in Iran. According to Brian Hook, Trump’s former point man for Iran in the State Department and current head of the transition team for the department, the president-elect has “no interest” in pursuing such a goal.
Nevertheless, Hook, who oversaw the maximum pressure policy on Iran during the previous Trump administration, recently told CNN that Trump has pledged to “isolate Iran diplomatically and weaken them economically so they can’t fund all of the violence” their proxies are responsible for in the Middle East.
After collapsing to 250,000 barrels a day by 2020 under Trump, Iran’s oil shipments reached a six-year high in September this year as the Biden administration discretely negotiated with the Islamic Republic to release US citizens detained there.
According to former US energy official Robert McNally, US bans on Chinese ports receiving Iranian oil would cut Iranian exports by about half a million barrels a day. “It’s going to be maximum pressure 2.0,” he told The Journal.
“The situation may become catastrophic for Iran’s oil industry,” an Iranian oil official told The Journal, adding that Tehran is already selling China crude oil at a discount as Iran suffers from natural gas shortages caused by years of underinvestment. An Iranian diplomat, however, said Iran could circumvent the impact of US sanctions by deepening trade partnerships elsewhere, particularly with the Asia-focused Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
Another factor that will affect Iranian oil is the possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran’s energy facilities. Israel recently attacked the Iranian Republic but spared that infrastructure due to US pressure. That attack was a response to a barrage of missiles Iran fired on Israel last month, which it said was revenge for the assassination of several high-profile terrorists the country supports. For decades, the Islamic Republic has vowed to annihilate Israel.
Unlike the Biden administration, Trump’s senior advisers strongly support an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and oil fields, Helima Croft, the chief commodities strategist at Canadian broker RBC Capital Markets, told The Journal. Another individual in contact with the president-elect’s team said Trump would be less inclined to oppose such a strike.
