Ahead of exit polls, a reminder: They’re reliably unreliable

Ahead of the exit polls later this evening, bear in mind: The TV surveys in the past have been wildly off-mark and should be viewed with a fair measure of skepticism.

In April, for example, Channel 12 gave Benny Gantz’s Blue and White 37 seats, compared to 33 for Likud. Channel 13 — the most accurate of the batch — said the two largest parties would tie at 36 seats, but had the New Right passing the electoral threshold. And Kan also gave Blue and White a slight edge, with 37 seats (and 36 for Likud). In the end, the two parties received 35 seats.

This time around, the question hovering over the results will be about whether the winner can build a coalition, rather than which party receives the most seats. And that could come down to a single Knesset seat — and may only be known by tomorrow morning or afternoon.