Channel 13 exit poll: Eisenkot-led bloc in lead, Likud largest party, but neither camp gets majority amid record Arab showing

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party has won the most votes in Tuesday’s election, but the bloc of parties opposed to him and led by Gadi Eisenkot finishes ahead of his bloc, according to Channel 13’s exit poll. However, neither camp has a clear path to forming a government amid a record showing for Israel’s Arab-led parties, according to the projection.

Likud’s projected lead after polls closed at 10 p.m. defies weeks of surveys that mostly showed the premier’s party trailing. Likud will win 25 Knesset seats, according to the exit poll, while Eisenkot’s centrist opposition Yashar party will get 23.

Overall, the anti-Netanyahu bloc is projected to win 53 seats, while the Netanyahu-led right-wing religious bloc is projected to win 50. Both are expected to fall well short of a 61-seat majority.

Arab-led parties, which also oppose Netanyahu, are expected to win a record total of 17 seats.

The lack of a clear victor is in line with months of surveys that predicted an inconclusive election. It indicates that the coming days and weeks will see parties and their leaders negotiate with each other in an attempt to cobble together enough support to form a government, possibly with the support of Arab-led parties that have generally not joined governing coalitions.

But it also leaves open the possibility that neither Netanyahu nor his opponents will be able to assemble a coalition. In that case, Israel may hold a repeat election, with Netanyahu remaining as caretaker prime minister. That would be a repeat of 2019 to 2022, when the country held five rounds of voting.

Exit polls are often updated throughout the night as new data comes in.

Meanwhile, the Central Elections Committee has begun counting votes. The committee will provide official tallies throughout the night, and the actual results often differ from exit poll projections.

In third place, according to the exit poll, is the opposition B’Yachad party, led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett, with 14 seats, then the Arab-led Joint List with 10 seats.

Two small parties, the nonaligned Reservists and right-wing People of Israel, are projected to fall short of the minimum 3.25% of votes needed to enter the Knesset, according to Channel 13.