Poll: Netanyahu’s Likud remains largest party, as Bennett continues to lose ground

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling party would remain the largest party in the Knesset if elections were held today, according to a poll conducted by Zman Yisrael, The Times of Israel’s Hebrew-language sister site, with results indicating the premier is enjoying increased support in the wake of the ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.

However, the poll shows a drop of three seats for the party compared to last week’s poll, conducted in the days following the release of the remaining 20 living hostages, with the party now predicted to win 31 seats.

Former prime minister Naftali Bennett’s party, Bennett 2026, — seen as Likud’s main rival in the next election — continues to decline, with 18 seats, according to the poll, dropping two seats from last week, which already saw his worst result yet.

The parties making up the current coalition hold a total of 57 seats, while the Zionist anti-Netanyahu bloc holds 53, and Arab-majority Hadash-Ta’al and Islamist Ra’am parties poll at a combined 10 seats.

Bennett’s short-lived “change government” from 2021-2022 counted Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, among its numbers, but it is not clear if he or his allies would be willing to work with the party again in the future.

Several parties are hovering around the 4-seat mark, meaning just above the 3.25 percent electoral threshold, putting them at risk of slipping below it and missing out on entering the Knesset altogether, the Zman Yisrael poll showed.

Tying for the third largest party in the Knesset after Likud and Bennett 2026 would be Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu, and Netanyahu allies, the ultra-Orthodox Shas party with 10 seats, followed by the opposition left-wing Democrats party with nine seats.

Another one of Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox allies, United Torah Judaism, polled at seven seats. Both Shas and UTJ quit the government this year over its failure to codify Haredi yeshiva students’ exemption from military service.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid’s centrist Yesh Atid party also received seven seats according to the poll, maintaining last week’s position.

Entering the Knesset with five seats each would be Ra’am, ex-IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, and Hadash-Ta’al.

Heading up the rear are Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism and Benny Gantz’s Blue and White, each with four seats.

Neither Yoaz Hendel’s HaMiluimnikim (The Reservists) party — which has declined to say whether it would join a Netanyahu government — nor the Palestinian nationalist party Balad would pass the electoral threshold.

In comparison, a Channel 12 news poll found the Likud with 27 seats; Bennett 2026 with 21; the Democrats with 13; Yesh Atid, Shas, and Yisrael Beytenu on nine; Otzma Yehudit on eight; UTJ and Yashar on 7; Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am on 5, while Blue and White, Religious Zionism, Balad, and HaMiluimnikim would not pass the electoral threshold.

That adds up to 51 seats for the Netanyahu-led current coalition parties and 59 for anti-Netanyahu Zionist parties, with the two mainly Arab parties holding the balance of power.

The Zman poll also found that a majority of respondents were interested in holding elections early, with 45% answering they should be held at the earliest possible date, and 6.44% wanting them to be held in June, while 39.11% said they should be held on their scheduled date in October 2026.

Early elections can only happen if the Knesset votes to dissolve itself, or if the state budget doesn’t pass by the end of May, in which case the Knesset dissolves automatically.

Both Smotrich and Ben Gvir have threatened to topple the government in case of a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

The Zman poll was conducted by Adgenda between October 22-23 with 404 participants, and has a margin of error of 4.8%