Analysis

Houthis’ deadly Tel Aviv drone strike: ‘Lucky shot’ or strategic threat?

Analysts say Iran-backed rebels unable to build their own drones, instead rely on parts and blueprints from Tehran; Israel said too far to launch undetectable drones from Yemen

Drones are displayed on the back of a vehicle during an official military parade marking the ninth anniversary of the Houthi takeover of the capital, Sanaa, on September 21, 2023. (Mohammed Huwais/AFP)
Drones are displayed on the back of a vehicle during an official military parade marking the ninth anniversary of the Houthi takeover of the capital, Sanaa, on September 21, 2023. (Mohammed Huwais/AFP)

Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who claimed a deadly strike far from their borders inside Israel early Friday, have built up a significant drone arsenal.

Since November, the Iran-backed Houthis have carried out dozens of drone and missile attacks against shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, in what they say is an act of solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza amid the Israel-Hamas war there.

The war was sparked by Hamas’s shock October 7 assault, in which thousands of terrorists stormed southern Israel to kill nearly 1,200 people and take 251 hostages.

After repeatedly threatening to expand their operations, the Yemeni rebels claimed a drone attack Friday on Tel Aviv that killed one person and wounded several others.

It marked a “new phase” in their operations against Israel, said the Houthis, who have been steadily developing their drone capabilities since 2014, when they seized the Yemeni capital Sanaa in an Iran-backed rebellion.

Here is background on the Houthis’ technology:

Israeli security and rescue personnel at the scene of a drone explosion in Tel Aviv, July 19, 2024. (Erik Marmor/Flash90)

Made in Yemen?

Saudi Arabia and the United States have repeatedly accused Iran of supplying the Houthis with drones, missiles and other weapons, a charge Tehran denies.

The Houthis say they manufacture their drones domestically, although analysts say the drones contain smuggled Iranian components.

“The Houthis don’t build their own drones and they don’t build their own missiles. None of them are homemade,” said Andreas Krieg, a military analyst and senior lecturer in security studies at King’s College London,

“They’re all assembled in Yemen but are entirely based on Iranian infrastructure, Iranian blueprints and Iranian technology,” he told AFP.

Houthi rebels rally in support of the Palestinians in Gaza and against US strikes on Yemen, outside Sanaa, Yemen, January 22, 2024. (AP)

The Houthi arsenal includes the Iranian Shahed-136 drones that Russia is using in its war on Ukraine, Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, has told AFP. They have a range of about 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles), he said.

Another combat drone model, the Samad-3, has been used by the rebels in attacks on the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Hebrew media has reported that the Houthi drone that struck Tel Aviv on Friday was a Samad-3, whose payload was reduced to allow it to hold more fuel, extending its range.

The Houthis’ drones use GPS guidance and “fly autonomously along pre-programmed waypoints” towards their targets, experts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote in a 2020 report.

Since January, US military forces have shot down scores of drones in Houthi-held parts of Yemen and over surrounding waters as part of a campaign to deter the rebels from conducting ship attacks and to protect maritime traffic, according to United States Central Command.

An Iranian Shahed-129 drone is displayed at a rally in Tehran, Iran. (AP/Ebrahim Noroozi)

New drone?

On Friday, the rebels said a new drone dubbed “Yafa” was fired at Tel Aviv, which is about 1,800 kilometers (1,120 miles) away from Yemen, making the attack their deepest yet.

Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said the drone could bypass air defense systems and radar detection.

An Israeli military official who spoke on condition of anonymity said a “very big” drone had been detected but the alarm was not immediately raised because of “human error.”

Hinz, who analyzed drone debris footage, said there were signs that Yafa was an updated model of the rebel’s standard long-range strike drone.

“If you look closely at the debris and the pictures that we have, including of the engine, parts of the fuselage, and one wing, you can see that the UAV that was used has very strong similarities to the Samad-3,” Hinz said.

A police officer collects glass shrapnel from the window of a building that was damaged in a drone strike in Tel Aviv on July 19, 2024. (Gil Cohen-Magen/AFP)

“It might be a new version of that design,” Hinz added, noting that Yafa’s Iranian-made engine appears to be more powerful than previous models.

“It would be imaginable that the Houthis have tried to increase the range of the Samad-3 so they can fly routes that avoid enemy defenses, avoid detection and then attack from unexpected angles,” Hinz added.

Mohammed Albasha, senior Middle East analyst for the US-based Navanti Group, said “this drone is likely equipped with Radar-Absorbent Materials (RAM) to achieve maximum invisibility.”

Speaking to AFP, the expert said “these materials convert radio waves into heat, reducing the amount of energy reflected back to the radar source.”

A demonstrator carries a mock drone during a rally in support of Palestinians amid the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, in the Houthi-run Yemeni capital of Sanaa, February 23, 2024. On the mock drone’s side is written ‘Samad 4.’ (Mohammed Huwais/AFP)

Threat to Israel?

The Houthis have previously claimed drone and missile attacks targeting the southern resort town of Eilat and port cities of Ashdod and Haifa, but Friday’s drone strike appears to be the first to breach Israel’s intricate air defenses. A Houthi cruise missile had also struck near Eilat in March.

The drone strike is the first operation claimed by the rebels against Tel Aviv and is their first to cause a fatality in Israel.

“There’s no doubt that the group’s capabilities are improving,” said Torbjorn Soltvedt of the risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft.

“But Houthi claims that they have developed drones that can evade Israeli missile defenses are likely to be propaganda,” the expert added.

Yevgeny Ferder, who was killed in an explosive drone attack on Tel Aviv, in the early hours of July 19, 2024. (Courtesy)

According to Hinz, Houthi drone attacks do not pose “a strategic threat” to Israel. The distance between Yemen and Israel “is simply too great,” he said.

To pose an effective threat, the Houthis would have to deploy very large drones that are more easily detectable, Hinz said. It would also be difficult for them to overwhelm defenses with a swarm of drones from such a far range.

The Houthis might, however, “be able to get a ‘lucky shot,'” he said.

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