How likely are the Haredim to actually topple the government — and what comes next?

Last Wednesday, the spiritual leaders of Degel Hatorah, one of the two factions that make up the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party, instructed their MKs to introduce a bill to dissolve the Knesset due to the coalition’s failure to pass a law exempting yeshiva students from conscription.

The next day, the spiritual leadership of UTJ’s Hasidic Agudat Yisrael followed suit, with its ruling Council of Torah Sages backing new elections.

Buoyed by the cracks in the coalition, opposition parties Yesh Atid, Yisrael Beytenu, National Unity and The Democrats announced that they would submit a bill for the Knesset’s dissolution this Wednesday.

However, with only seven Knesset seats, UTJ on its own does not have the ability to bring down the government, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition currently holds 68 out of the 120 parliamentary seats.

Thus, any effort to do so on UTJ’s part would require the cooperation of the Sephardic Shas party, which on Monday morning announced that it, too, will vote in favor of dissolving the Knesset.

But how likely is it that the Haredim will end up actually toppling the government? And, if they do, how does the process of dissolving the Knesset work?

Negotiations on the enlistment bill

The heart of the current crisis lies with the ultra-Orthodox leadership’s frustration with Likud MK Yuli Edelstein. As head of the Knesset’s powerful Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Edelstein has long blocked the passage of a government-backed bill enshrining the broad exclusion from IDF service for Haredim, as demanded by the Shas and UTJ, and has instead been pledging that any law coming out of his committee would levy strong financial sanctions on draft dodgers.

According to reports, a revised draft of the bill by Edelstein’s committee includes a raft of harsh penalties, including the loss of property tax and public transportation discounts, the removal of tax benefits for working women married to dodgers, exclusion from the housing lottery, and the cancellation of daycare and academic subsidies.

The bill would also prevent draft dodgers up to the age of 29 from receiving driver’s licenses or traveling abroad and would open them up to the threat of arrest.

Edelstein’s unwillingness to back down from this position in last-ditch talks with the Haredim brokered by Netanyahu was what led Degel HaTorah’s leaders to support dissolving the Knesset. While he has shown somewhat more flexibility in subsequent talks over recent days, it was not enough to prevent Shas from following UTJ’s lead.

According to Channel 12, Edelstein expressed willingness to back off the cancellation of property tax discounts and allow the Haredim to receive tax breaks on the purchase of their first apartments.

Nevertheless, significant gaps remain, with the veteran lawmaker continuing to insist that the sanctions be applied immediately, while the Haredim are pushing for any penalties to be delayed by up to a year, in an apparent effort to weaken the pressure on evaders.

An interest in preserving the Knesset

However, despite its harsh rhetoric against Edelstein (the party’s spiritual leader said “his soul is an abomination“), many pundits have pointed out that Shas has an interest in keeping the Knesset together, at least for now.

The party is in the middle of a concerted push to appoint affiliated rabbis to municipal posts throughout the country, strengthening its political machine for the long haul.

“They have already appointed a handful of municipal rabbis with approximately 50 more [positions] still open,” explained Rabbi Seth Farber, the director of the ITIM nonprofit, which helps Israelis navigate the country’s religious bureaucracy.

According to Farber, while there is no law against continuing to appoint city rabbis following the dissolution of the Knesset, practically speaking, “if there’s snap elections, then clearly the moment there’s a date of the election, all the things will have to stop.”

Moreover, the opposition has promised to advance ultra-Orthodox conscription the moment it comes into power, limiting the Haredi parties’ options and leading many to speculate that the current crisis represents an effort to pressure Netanyahu into concessions — rather than a genuine campaign to take down the government.

“The Haredim know they have no other coalition, and after they see the movement they are looking for, they will come around,” a coalition source, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Times of Israel.

Putting the chances of the government actually falling at around 20 percent, the source said that even if the preliminary reading of the bill to dissolve the Knesset passes on Wednesday, the coalition will attempt to drag out the legislative process for as long as possible.

“July 23 is the last day of the plenum session before recess. Either the government uses that day to come to an agreed-upon election day, or we go into the recess. I don’t expect anything to fall before that,” the insider argued, while acknowledging, “Of course, it can get very dysfunctional until then.”

“Netanyahu can intervene and push Yuli Edelstein to agree to lift a large part of the sanctions, and then at least maybe Shas will support” a compromise over the wording of the bill and back down from its threats, agreed Yisroel Cohen, an ultra-Orthodox journalist with close ties to the Haredi parties. “Maybe Degel HaTorah, too.”

“Let’s put it this way,” Cohen added: “If you’re asking about three readings [of the dissolution bill], I don’t think it will pass. There will be a solution even earlier.”

Reversing course?

According to the ultra-Orthodox Behadrei Haredim news site, Jerusalem Affairs Minister Meir Porush has been working behind the scenes in recent days to reverse his Agudat Yisrael faction’s decision to support the dissolution of the Knesset.

Porush was said to be working on behalf of several senior rabbis opposed to the move, including Yissachar Dov Rokeach, the leader of the Belz Hasidic sect, who believes that the government should not be brought down in the middle of a war.

“There is a majority among the Haredi public and leadership that understands that dissolving the Knesset at this time is irresponsible,” the site quoted sources involved in the issue as saying.

What happens next?

A bill to dissolve the Knesset is similar to any other legislation and must pass three readings (after a preliminary vote) in the Knesset plenum before it becomes law, although, unlike other laws, it does require a minimum majority of 61 yes votes on its final reading.

Like any other bill, if it fails in the plenum, lawmakers will not be able to submit it again for a considerable period.

“So this is their main dilemma, because if they bring it to a vote, and if they fail, theoretically they won’t be able to raise it again for six months. And I think that they won’t bring it to the discussion and vote unless they will be sure that they have the majority or that they win at least the preliminary reading,” Assaf Shapira, the director of the Israel Democracy Institute’s Political Reform Program, told The Times of Israel.

And while such legislation can pass through all its reading “in theoretically one or two days,” he said, it is also possible to play “political games” by trying to hold it up in committee. Still, in the end, he noted, “if the ultra-Orthodox parties decide to support this law, [it] will probably pass.”

The law also stipulates that elections be held within five months of the Knesset’s dissolution, with the bill to dissolve the Knesset containing the specific date on which balloting is to take place.

Shapira predicted that if the law is passed soon, elections would be scheduled after the High Holidays “in late October or early November.”

Should that happen, it would likely lead to a halt on the advancement of any enlistment legislation, “so the Haredim would get a time out,” he said.

But they might not get a more convenient government.